Trade Shocks, Fertility, and Marital Behavior

63 Pages Posted: 27 Mar 2021

See all articles by Osea Giuntella

Osea Giuntella

University of Oxford

Lorenzo Rotunno

Aix-Marseille University - Aix-Marseille School of Economics

Luca Stella

Bocconi University; IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Abstract

Using longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we analyze the effects of exposure to trade on the fertility and marital behavior of German workers. We find that individuals working in sectors that were more affected by import competition from Eastern Europe and suffered worse labor market outcomes were less likely to have children. In contrast, workers in sectors that benefited from increased exports had better employment prospects and higher fertility. These effects are driven by low-educated and married men, and reflect changes in the likelihood of having any child (extensive margin). While among workers exposed to import competition there is evidence of some fertility postponement, we find a significant reduction of completed fertility. There is instead little evidence of any significant effect on marital behavior.

JEL Classification: F14, F16, J13

Suggested Citation

Giuntella, Osea and Rotunno, Lorenzo and Stella, Luca, Trade Shocks, Fertility, and Marital Behavior. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3813651 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3813651

Osea Giuntella (Contact Author)

University of Oxford ( email )

No Address Available

Lorenzo Rotunno

Aix-Marseille University - Aix-Marseille School of Economics ( email )

2 rue de la Charité
Marseille, 13236
France

Luca Stella

Bocconi University ( email )

Via Sarfatti, 25
Milan, MI 20136
Italy

IZA Institute of Labor Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

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