Toward Improved Guidelines for Uncertainty Analysis of Carbon Capture and Storage Techno-economic Studies

5 Pages Posted: 2 Apr 2021 Last revised: 7 Apr 2021

See all articles by Mijndert Van der Spek

Mijndert Van der Spek

Heriot Watt University

George Booras

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Timothy Fout

National Energy Technology Laboratory

Monica Garcia

IEAGHG

Michael Matuszewski

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Sean McCoy

University of Calgary - Department of Chemical and Petroleum Engineering

Joshua Morgan

Government of the United States of America - National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL)

Vishalini Nair Kuncheekanna

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Shareq Mohd Nazir

Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)

Andrea Ramirez

TuDelft

Simon Roussanaly

SINTEF Energy Research

Edward S. Rubin

Carnegie Mellon University - Department of Engineering and Public Policy

Date Written: March 15, 2021

Abstract

Uncertainty analysis is a key element of sound techno-economic analysis (TEA) of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) technologies and systems, and in the communication of TEA results. Many CCS technologies are novel concepts, that are still in the early (pre-commercial) stages of development. Therefore, uncertainties in their technology performance and cost are often substantial, making it imperative that they be characterized, and their impacts reported. Although uncertainty analysis itself is not novel, with some methods already frequently used by the CCS TEA community, a document that provides a comprehensive overview of methods and approaches, as well as guidance on their selection and use, is still lacking. Given its importance, we seek to fill this gap by providing a critical review of uncertainty analysis methods along with guidance on the selection and use of these methods for CCS TEAs, highlighting good practice and examples from the CCS literature. There are many opportunities to bring the use of uncertainty analysis to a higher level than currently practiced. This review of and guidance on available methods is intended to help accelerate continued methods development and their application to more robust and meaningful CCS performance and cost studies.

Keywords: CCS, Techno-economics, Guidelines, Local and global uncertainty analysis, Pedigree analysis, Pseudo-statistical approach

Suggested Citation

Van der Spek, Mijndert and Booras, George and Fout, Timothy and Garcia, Monica and Matuszewski, Michael and McCoy, Sean and Morgan, Joshua and Nair Kuncheekanna, Vishalini and Nazir, Shareq Mohd and Ramirez Ramirez, Andrea and Roussanaly, Simon and Rubin, Edward S., Toward Improved Guidelines for Uncertainty Analysis of Carbon Capture and Storage Techno-economic Studies (March 15, 2021). Proceedings of the 15th Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies Conference 15-18 March 2021, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3815109 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3815109

Mijndert Van der Spek (Contact Author)

Heriot Watt University ( email )

Institute of Petroleum Engineering
Edinburgh, EH144AS
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://www.rccs.hw.ac.uk

George Booras

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Timothy Fout

National Energy Technology Laboratory

3610 Collins Ferry Rd
Morgantown, WV 26507
United States

Monica Garcia

IEAGHG ( email )

Hatherley Lane
Cheltenham, GL51 6SH
United Kingdom

Michael Matuszewski

affiliation not provided to SSRN

No Address Available

Sean McCoy

University of Calgary - Department of Chemical and Petroleum Engineering ( email )

Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4
Canada

Joshua Morgan

Government of the United States of America - National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) ( email )

Pittsburgh, PA
United States

Vishalini Nair Kuncheekanna

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Shareq Mohd Nazir

Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) ( email )

Høgskoleringen
Trondheim NO-7491, 7491
Norway

Andrea Ramirez Ramirez

TuDelft ( email )

Stevinweg 1
Stevinweg 1
Delft, 2628 CN
Netherlands

Simon Roussanaly

SINTEF Energy Research ( email )

Kolbjørn Hejes vei 1A
Trondheim, NO-7034
Norway

Edward S. Rubin

Carnegie Mellon University - Department of Engineering and Public Policy

Baker Hall 129
5000 Forbes Avenue
Pittsburgh, PA 15213
United States

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