Brexit and the Northern Ireland Peace Process

Abstract

This analysis of the future EU-UK relationship deals with the impact of the Northern Ireland (NI) Protocol to the Withdrawal Agreement, that was put in place at the insistence of the EU to protect the Belfast/Good Friday peace agreement. It discusses the reasons why the Protocol was adopted, why there is strong opposition to the Protocol from a section of political opinion in NI and its impact on political developments in Ireland and the UK. As the new EU-UK relationship develops, the UK will have to deal with the impact of its policy choice to leave the Single Market on the deeply divided politics of Northern Ireland and also on the UK’s internal constitutional conflicts, especially in Scotland. The intersection between the UK’s internal problems, including in NI, and its management of future negotiations with the EU under the TCA, has added an element of unpredictable volatility to the UK’s future relationship with the EU.

Keywords: Brexit, Northern Ireland Protocol, Peace, EU-UK Bilateral Relations, Trade and Cooperation Agreement