Allocating COVID-19 Vaccines: Save One for the Second Dose?

33 Pages Posted: 9 Apr 2021 Last revised: 16 Aug 2021

See all articles by Robert A. Shumsky

Robert A. Shumsky

Dartmouth College - Tuck School of Business

James Smith

Dartmouth College

Anne Hoen

Department of Epidemiology, Geisel School of Medicine

Michael Gilbert

Catholic Medical Center

Date Written: August 10, 2021

Abstract

The majority of COVID-19 vaccines currently available are typically administered in two doses, with a prescribed number of weeks separating the two doses. Because of uncertainty in vaccine supply, many vaccination managers have saved doses in inventory to ensure on-time second doses. However, saving doses slows the administration of first doses and potentially delays completing the vaccination of the target population. In this paper, we use a mathematical model to explore the performance of policies to manage the administration of two-dose vaccines given supply uncertainty. The mathematical structure of the model suggests simple ``set-aside'' policies that prioritize second doses and set aside some vaccine for second doses that are due in the coming weeks; any remaining vaccine is given as first doses. We can determine good set-aside policies using a simple simulation model. In our numerical experiments, the performance of the recommended set-aside policy is close to a bound generated by the optimal allocation given perfect information about vaccine supply; thus the set-aside policies are nearly optimal given uncertainty in supply. We also find that a "lockbox'' policy that ensures no second doses will be delayed appears to be overly conservative. We also show that set-aside policies perform well when vaccination supply is increasing and when two two-dose vaccines are available.

Note: Funding Statement: No funding was received for this work.

Declaration of Interests: No conflict of interests exists.

Keywords: Vaccination; Dynamic Programming; Policies; Inventory; Stochastic Models

Suggested Citation

Shumsky, Robert A. and Smith, James and Hoen, Anne and Gilbert, Michael, Allocating COVID-19 Vaccines: Save One for the Second Dose? (August 10, 2021). Tuck School of Business Working Paper No. 3816200, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3816200 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3816200

Robert A. Shumsky (Contact Author)

Dartmouth College - Tuck School of Business ( email )

Hanover, NH 03755
United States

James Smith

Dartmouth College ( email )

Hanover, NH 03755
United States
6036461431 (Phone)
03755 (Fax)

Anne Hoen

Department of Epidemiology, Geisel School of Medicine ( email )

1 Rope Ferry Road
Hanover, NH 03755-1404
United States

Michael Gilbert

Catholic Medical Center ( email )

100 McGregor St.
Manchester, NH 03102
United States
03102 (Fax)

Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?

Paper statistics

Downloads
141
Abstract Views
937
Rank
370,936
PlumX Metrics