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Risk Factors for Developing COVID-19: A Population-Based Longitudinal Study (COVIDENCE UK)

26 Pages Posted: 1 Apr 2021

See all articles by Hayley Holt

Hayley Holt

Queen Mary University of London - Institute of Population Health Sciences

Mohammad Talaei

Queen Mary University of London - Institute of Population Health Sciences

Matthew Greenig

Queen Mary University of London - Institute of Population Health Sciences

Dominik Zenner

Queen Mary University of London - Institute of Population Health Sciences; Queen Mary University of London - Institute of Population Health Sciences

Jane Symons

Jane Symons Media

Clare Relton

Queen Mary University of London - Institute of Population Health Sciences

Katherine S. Young

King's College London - Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience (IoPPN)

Molly R. Davies

King's College London - Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience (IoPPN)

Katherine N. Thompson

King's College London - Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience (IoPPN)

Jed Ashman

Queen Mary University of London - Institute of Population Health Sciences

Sultan Saeed Rajpoot

Queen Mary University of London - Institute of Population Health Sciences

Ahmed Ali Kayyale

Queen Mary University of London - Institute of Population Health Sciences

Sarah El Rifai

Queen Mary University of London - Institute of Population Health Sciences

Philippa J. Lloyd

Queen Mary University of London - Institute of Population Health Sciences

David A. Jolliffe

Queen Mary University of London - Institute of Population Health Sciences

Sarah Finer

Queen Mary University of London - Institute of Population Health Sciences

Stamatina Ilidriomiti

Queen Mary University of London - Institute of Population Health Sciences

Alec Miners

London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine - Department of Health Services Research and Policy

Nicholas S. Hopkinson

Imperial College London - National Heart and Lung Institute

Bodrul Alam

Edenfield Road Surgery

Paul E. Pfeffer

Queen Mary University of London - Institute of Population Health Sciences

David McCoy

Queen Mary University of London - Institute of Population Health Sciences

Gwyneth A. Davies

Swansea University - Swansea University Medical School

Ronan A. Lyons

Swansea University - Swansea University Medical School

Christopher J. Griffiths

Queen Mary University of London - Institute of Population Health Sciences

Frank Kee

Queen's University Belfast

Aziz Sheikh

University of Edinburgh - Asthma UK Centre for Applied Research

Gerome Breen

King's College London - Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience (IoPPN)

Seif O. Shaheen

Queen Mary University of London - Institute of Population Health Sciences

Adrian R. Martineau

Queen Mary University of London - Barts and The London School of Medicine and Dentistry; Queen Mary University of London - Institute of Population Health Sciences; Queen Mary University of London - Asthma UK Centre for Applied Research

More...

Abstract

Background: Risk factors for severe COVID-19 include older age, male sex, obesity, Black or Asian ethnicity and underlying medical conditions. Whether these factors also influence susceptibility to developing COVID-19 is uncertain.

Methods: We undertook a prospective, population-based cohort study (COVIDENCE UK) from 1 st May 2020 to 5 th February 2021 . Baseline information on potential risk factors was captured by an online questionnaire. Monthly follow-up questionnaires captured incident COVID-19. We used logistic regression models to estimate multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for associations between potential risk factors and risk of COVID-19.

Findings: We recorded 446 incident cases of COVID-19 in 15,227 participants (2.9%). Increased risk of developing COVID-19 was independently associated with Asian/Asian British vs . White ethnicity (aOR 2.31, 95% CI 1.35-3.95), household overcrowding (aOR per additional 0.5 people/bedroom 1.26, 1.11-1.43) , any vs . no visits to/from other households in previous week (aOR 1.33, 1.07-1.64), number of visits to indoor public places (aOR per extra visit per week 1.05, 1.01-1.09), frontline occupation excluding health/social care vs. no frontline occupation (aOR 1.49, 1.12-1.98), and raised body mass index (BMI) (aOR 1.51 [1.20-1.90] for BMI 25.0-30.0 kg/m 2 and 1.38 [1.05-1.82] for BMI >30.0 kg/m 2 vs. BMI <25.0 kg/m 2 ). Atopic disease was independently associated with decreased risk (aOR 0.76, 0.59-0.98). No independent associations were seen for age, sex, other medical conditions, diet, or micronutrient supplement use.

Interpretation: After rigorous adjustment for factors influencing exposure to SARS-CoV-2, Asian/Asian British ethnicity and raised BMI were associated with increased risk of developing COVID-19, while atopic disease was associated with decreased risk.

Trial Registration: It is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04330599).

Funding: Barts Charity, Health Data Research UK

Declaration of Interest: None to declare.

Ethical Approval: The study was sponsored by Queen Mary University of London and approved by
Leicester South Research Ethics Committee (ref 20/EM/0117).

Suggested Citation

Holt, Hayley and Talaei, Mohammad and Greenig, Matthew and Zenner, Dominik and Symons, Jane and Relton, Clare and Young, Katherine S. and Davies, Molly R. and Thompson, Katherine N. and Ashman, Jed and Rajpoot, Sultan Saeed and Kayyale, Ahmed Ali and El Rifai, Sarah and Lloyd, Philippa J. and Jolliffe, David A. and Finer, Sarah and Ilidriomiti, Stamatina and Miners, Alec and Hopkinson, Nicholas S. and Alam, Bodrul and Pfeffer, Paul E. and McCoy, David and Davies, Gwyneth A. and Lyons, Ronan A. and Griffiths, Christopher J. and Kee, Frank and Sheikh, Aziz and Breen, Gerome and Shaheen, Seif O. and Martineau, Adrian R., Risk Factors for Developing COVID-19: A Population-Based Longitudinal Study (COVIDENCE UK). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3817437 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3817437

Hayley Holt

Queen Mary University of London - Institute of Population Health Sciences ( email )

London
United Kingdom

Mohammad Talaei

Queen Mary University of London - Institute of Population Health Sciences ( email )

London
United Kingdom

Matthew Greenig

Queen Mary University of London - Institute of Population Health Sciences ( email )

London
United Kingdom

Dominik Zenner

Queen Mary University of London - Institute of Population Health Sciences

London
United Kingdom

Queen Mary University of London - Institute of Population Health Sciences

London
United Kingdom

Jane Symons

Jane Symons Media ( email )

London
United Kingdom

Clare Relton

Queen Mary University of London - Institute of Population Health Sciences ( email )

London
United Kingdom

Katherine S. Young

King's College London - Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience (IoPPN)

United Kingdom

Molly R. Davies

King's College London - Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience (IoPPN) ( email )

United Kingdom

Katherine N. Thompson

King's College London - Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience (IoPPN)

United Kingdom

Jed Ashman

Queen Mary University of London - Institute of Population Health Sciences ( email )

London
United Kingdom

Sultan Saeed Rajpoot

Queen Mary University of London - Institute of Population Health Sciences ( email )

London
United Kingdom

Ahmed Ali Kayyale

Queen Mary University of London - Institute of Population Health Sciences ( email )

London
United Kingdom

Sarah El Rifai

Queen Mary University of London - Institute of Population Health Sciences ( email )

London
United Kingdom

Philippa J. Lloyd

Queen Mary University of London - Institute of Population Health Sciences ( email )

London
United Kingdom

David A. Jolliffe

Queen Mary University of London - Institute of Population Health Sciences

London
United Kingdom

Sarah Finer

Queen Mary University of London - Institute of Population Health Sciences ( email )

London
United Kingdom

Stamatina Ilidriomiti

Queen Mary University of London - Institute of Population Health Sciences ( email )

London
United Kingdom

Alec Miners

London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine - Department of Health Services Research and Policy

London
United Kingdom

Nicholas S. Hopkinson

Imperial College London - National Heart and Lung Institute ( email )

Guy Scadding Building, Cale Street
London, SW3 6LY
United Kingdom

Bodrul Alam

Edenfield Road Surgery ( email )

Rochdale
United Kingdom

Paul E. Pfeffer

Queen Mary University of London - Institute of Population Health Sciences ( email )

London
United Kingdom

David McCoy

Queen Mary University of London - Institute of Population Health Sciences ( email )

London
United Kingdom

Gwyneth A. Davies

Swansea University - Swansea University Medical School ( email )

Singleton Park
Swansea, Wales SA2 8PP
United Kingdom

Ronan A. Lyons

Swansea University - Swansea University Medical School ( email )

Singleton Park
Swansea, Wales SA2 8PP
United Kingdom

Christopher J. Griffiths

Queen Mary University of London - Institute of Population Health Sciences ( email )

London
United Kingdom

Frank Kee

Queen's University Belfast ( email )

Aziz Sheikh

University of Edinburgh - Asthma UK Centre for Applied Research ( email )

Edinburgh
United Kingdom

Gerome Breen

King's College London - Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience (IoPPN) ( email )

United Kingdom

Seif O. Shaheen

Queen Mary University of London - Institute of Population Health Sciences ( email )

London
United Kingdom

Adrian R. Martineau (Contact Author)

Queen Mary University of London - Barts and The London School of Medicine and Dentistry ( email )

Blizard Institute
4 Newark St.
London, E1 2AT
United Kingdom
+44 207 882 2551 (Phone)
+44 207 882 2552 (Fax)

Queen Mary University of London - Institute of Population Health Sciences ( email )

London
United Kingdom
+44 207 882 2551 (Phone)
+44 207 882 2552 (Fax)

Queen Mary University of London - Asthma UK Centre for Applied Research

London
United Kingdom

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