When Two Become One: Foreign Capital and Household Credit Expansion

Abstract

Rapid credit expansions predict lower output growth and banking crises, but does it matter who is financing them? To answer this question, we identify the ultimate counterparties financing credit expansions in a novel data set covering 33 countries. We find that foreign-financed household credit expansions predict lower future GDP growth and higher risk of crises, but domestically financed credit expansions do not. We link these patterns to depressed domestic demand driven by higher debt service payments to foreigners, reversals in foreign financing, and confirm the findings using an instrumental variable based on lending dynamics in the international banking network.

Keywords: Business cycles, capital flows, debt service, financial crises, global financial cycle, household debt

JEL Classification: E32, E44, F34, G01, G15, G51