Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections

37 Pages Posted: 24 Apr 2021 Last revised: 21 Aug 2021

See all articles by Gordon B. Dahl

Gordon B. Dahl

UC San Diego - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Runjing Lu

University of Alberta - Department of Finance

William Mullins

University of California, San Diego (UCSD)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: August 19, 2021

Abstract

Changes in political leadership drive large changes in economic optimism. We exploit the surprise 2016 election of Trump to identify the effects of a shift in political power on one of the most consequential household decisions: whether to have a child. Republican-leaning counties experience a sharp and persistent increase in fertility relative to Democratic counties: a 1.1 to 2.6 percentage point difference in annual births, depending on the intensity of partisanship. In addition, Hispanics see fertility fall relative to non-Hispanics, especially compared to rural or evangelical whites. Further, following Trump pre-election campaign visits, relative Hispanic fertility declines.

Keywords: Fertility, Partisanship

JEL Classification: J13, D72

Suggested Citation

Dahl, Gordon B. and Lu, Runjing and Mullins, William, Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections (August 19, 2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3822013 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3822013

Gordon B. Dahl

UC San Diego - Department of Economics ( email )

9500 Gilman Drive
Mail Code 0502
La Jolla, CA 92093-0112
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Runjing Lu

University of Alberta - Department of Finance ( email )

Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2R3
Canada

William Mullins (Contact Author)

University of California, San Diego (UCSD) ( email )

9500 Gilman Drive
Mail Code 0502
La Jolla, CA 92093-0112
United States

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