Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections
40 Pages Posted: 24 Apr 2021 Last revised: 17 Dec 2021
Date Written: December 14, 2021
Changes in political leadership drive sharp changes in public policy and partisan beliefs about the future. We exploit the surprise 2016 election of Trump to identify the effects of a shift in political power on one of the most consequential household decisions: whether to have a child. Republican-leaning counties experience a sharp and persistent increase in fertility relative to Democratic counties, a shift amounting to 1.2 to 2.2% of the national fertility rate. In addition, Hispanics see fertility fall relative to non-Hispanics, especially compared to rural or evangelical whites.
Keywords: Fertility, Partisanship
JEL Classification: J13, D72
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation