Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections
37 Pages Posted: 24 Apr 2021 Last revised: 21 Aug 2021
Date Written: August 19, 2021
Changes in political leadership drive large changes in economic optimism. We exploit the surprise 2016 election of Trump to identify the effects of a shift in political power on one of the most consequential household decisions: whether to have a child. Republican-leaning counties experience a sharp and persistent increase in fertility relative to Democratic counties: a 1.1 to 2.6 percentage point difference in annual births, depending on the intensity of partisanship. In addition, Hispanics see fertility fall relative to non-Hispanics, especially compared to rural or evangelical whites. Further, following Trump pre-election campaign visits, relative Hispanic fertility declines.
Keywords: Fertility, Partisanship
JEL Classification: J13, D72
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation