Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections

American Economic Review: Insights (2022)

40 Pages Posted: 24 Apr 2021 Last revised: 14 Feb 2023

See all articles by Gordon B. Dahl

Gordon B. Dahl

University of California, San Diego (UCSD); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Runjing Lu

University of Toronto

William Mullins

University of California, San Diego (UCSD)

Multiple version iconThere are 5 versions of this paper

Date Written: December 14, 2021

Abstract

Changes in political leadership drive sharp changes in public policy and partisan beliefs about the future. We exploit the surprise 2016 election of Trump to identify the effects of a shift in political power on one of the most consequential household decisions: whether to have a child. Republican-leaning counties experience a sharp and persistent increase in fertility relative to Democratic counties, a shift amounting to 1.2 to 2.2% of the national fertility rate. In addition, Hispanics see fertility fall relative to non-Hispanics, especially compared to rural or evangelical whites.

Keywords: Fertility, Partisanship

JEL Classification: J13, D72

Suggested Citation

Dahl, Gordon B. and Lu, Runjing and Mullins, William, Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections (December 14, 2021). American Economic Review: Insights (2022), Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3822013 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3822013

Gordon B. Dahl

University of California, San Diego (UCSD) ( email )

9500 Gilman Drive
Mail Code 0502
La Jolla, CA 92093-0112
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Runjing Lu

University of Toronto ( email )

105 St George Street
Toronto, Ontario M5S 3G8
Canada

William Mullins (Contact Author)

University of California, San Diego (UCSD) ( email )

9500 Gilman Drive
Mail Code 0502
La Jolla, CA 92093-0112
United States

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