Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections

40 Pages Posted: 24 Apr 2021 Last revised: 17 Dec 2021

See all articles by Gordon B. Dahl

Gordon B. Dahl

UC San Diego - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Runjing Lu

University of Alberta

William Mullins

University of California, San Diego (UCSD)

Multiple version iconThere are 5 versions of this paper

Date Written: December 14, 2021

Abstract

Changes in political leadership drive sharp changes in public policy and partisan beliefs about the future. We exploit the surprise 2016 election of Trump to identify the effects of a shift in political power on one of the most consequential household decisions: whether to have a child. Republican-leaning counties experience a sharp and persistent increase in fertility relative to Democratic counties, a shift amounting to 1.2 to 2.2% of the national fertility rate. In addition, Hispanics see fertility fall relative to non-Hispanics, especially compared to rural or evangelical whites.

Keywords: Fertility, Partisanship

JEL Classification: J13, D72

Suggested Citation

Dahl, Gordon B. and Lu, Runjing and Mullins, William, Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections (December 14, 2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3822013 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3822013

Gordon B. Dahl

UC San Diego - Department of Economics ( email )

9500 Gilman Drive
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National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Cambridge, MA 02138
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Runjing Lu

University of Alberta ( email )

William Mullins (Contact Author)

University of California, San Diego (UCSD) ( email )

9500 Gilman Drive
Mail Code 0502
La Jolla, CA 92093-0112
United States

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