Macroeconomic Effects of the Commodity Price Shocks on the Post-Soviet Resource-Rich Economies

Abstract

Post-soviet countries still experience economic challenges following the painful transition process and the global financial crisis. Especially, resource-rich countries experience it in a higher magnitude because of the distinguished role of the mineral revenue in the macroeconomic stability. Recent price shocks in the international commodity markets proved this point as a reflection on the macroeconomic performance of the post-soviet resource-rich countries. This paper aims to compare country statistics of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan to draw general conclusions about the recent effects of 2014-2015 sharp commodity price downturns. To do so, graph analysis and correlation analysis have been applied. The findings reflect a strong and significant correlation between the selected variables of interest, such as GDP, GDP per capita, terms of trade, government spending, etc. and oil prices.

Keywords: Resource Dependency, Dutch Disease, Post-Soviet Countries, Resource-Rich Countries, Correlation Analysis

JEL Classification: F00, F10, F13, F14, F15, G01