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The Cost of Procuring and Delivering COVID-19 Vaccines in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Model of Projected Resource Needs

25 Pages Posted: 15 Apr 2021

See all articles by Mohamed Mustafa Diab

Mohamed Mustafa Diab

Center for Policy Impact in Global Health

Armand Zimmerman

Duke University - Duke Global Health Institute; Duke University - Center for Policy Impact in Global Health

Siddharth Dixit

Duke University - Duke Global Health Institute

Wenhui Mao

Duke University - Duke Global Health Institute

Ipchita Bharali

Duke University - Duke Global Health Institute

Annalisa Kristoffersen

Duke University

Gavin Yamey

Duke Global Health Institute

Osondu Ogbuoji

Duke University - Sanford School of Public Policy

More...

Abstract

Background: Ending the COVID-19 pandemic requires effective implementation of vaccination programs in all countries. Information on the cost of vaccine procurement and delivery is paramount for effective planning and budgeting, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) given their budget constraints.

Methods: We estimated regional and national costs to scale up COVID-19 vaccinations in 132 LMICs under different scenarios. We defined three priority groups: 1) healthcare workers; 2) population at high risk of severe COVID-19; and 3) adults with low risk of mortality and morbidity. We assumed that 70% of the population needs to be vaccinated to reach vaccine herd immunity. We used publicly available data on procurement pricing, delivery costs, and population size. We compared the price tag estimates to the countries’ historical annual immunization spending.

Findings: We estimated a total cost of US$74 billion to reach vaccine herd immunity in LMICs. Of this total, 67% (US$50 billion) is for vaccine procurement, 33% (US$24 billion) is for vaccine delivery, 6% (US$4·2 billion) is to vaccinate high-risk populations, and 0.6% (US$0·46 billion) is to vaccinate healthcare workers. Twenty percent of LMICs have a price tag that is at least 10 times their baseline annual immunization spending.

Interpretation: COVID-19 vaccination will have a major impact on LMIC national healthcare budgets. Substantial investments by governments and donors are needed for vaccine procurement and vaccine delivery infrastructure.

Funding: Duke Global Health Institute pilot grant.

Conflict of Interest: Dr. Dixit reports grants from Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, outside the submitted work, all other authors have nothing to disclose.

Suggested Citation

Mustafa Diab, Mohamed and Zimmerman, Armand and Dixit, Siddharth and Mao, Wenhui and Bharali, Ipchita and Kristoffersen, Annalisa and Yamey, Gavin and Ogbuoji, Osondu, The Cost of Procuring and Delivering COVID-19 Vaccines in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Model of Projected Resource Needs. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3824690 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3824690

Mohamed Mustafa Diab

Center for Policy Impact in Global Health ( email )

310 Trent Drive
Box 90519
Durham, NC 27710
United States

HOME PAGE: http://https://globalhealth.duke.edu/people/diab-mohamed-mustafa

Armand Zimmerman

Duke University - Duke Global Health Institute ( email )

310 Trent Drive
Box 90519
Durham, NC 27710
United States

Duke University - Center for Policy Impact in Global Health ( email )

310 Trent Drive
Durham, NC 27710
United States

Siddharth Dixit

Duke University - Duke Global Health Institute ( email )

310 Trent Drive
Box 90519
Durham, NC 27710
United States

Wenhui Mao

Duke University - Duke Global Health Institute ( email )

310 Trent Drive
Box 90519
Durham, NC 27710
United States

Ipchita Bharali

Duke University - Duke Global Health Institute ( email )

310 Trent Drive
Box 90519
Durham, NC 27710
United States

HOME PAGE: http://centerforpolicyimpact.org

Annalisa Kristoffersen

Duke University

100 Fuqua Drive
Durham, NC 27708-0204
United States

Gavin Yamey

Duke Global Health Institute ( email )

Trent Hall
310 Trent Drive
Durham, NC 27708
United States

Osondu Ogbuoji (Contact Author)

Duke University - Sanford School of Public Policy ( email )

Durham, NC

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