Do Politically Irrelevant Events Cause Conflicts? Professional Football in Europe and Protests in Africa

52 Pages Posted: 19 Apr 2021 Last revised: 20 Jul 2021

See all articles by Kyosuke Kikuta

Kyosuke Kikuta

Institute of Developing Economies

Mamoru Uesugi

Osaka University - Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP)

Date Written: April 15, 2021

Abstract

We examine whether politically irrelevant events can cause conflicts, by analyzing the effects of professional football in Europe on protests in Africa—an unintended spillover across the continents. By expanding psychological theories, we argue that the outcomes of the football games in Europe can affect African people’s mood and their subjective evaluation of domestic politicians, which can in turn trigger protests. A regression discontinuity analysis of 15,102 close football games (2005-2019) reveals that a close loss of a European football team to which an African player belongs nearly doubles the rate of protest in his home country. The effect is particularly large for non-ethnic protests targeted at a central government. Moreover, people who are interviewed immediately after a close loss express 23% less trust in his/her country’s leader on average. By contrast, close victories do not have equivalent or compensating effects on protests or public opinion. These results suggest asymmetric misattribution; people in Africa blame domestic politicians and protest for the bad luck in the European football games, while they do not credit politicians or eschew protesting after victories.

Keywords: Football, Soccer, Conflict, Psychology, Regression discontinuity

JEL Classification: D74, D91, L83, Z29

Suggested Citation

Kikuta, Kyosuke and Uesugi, Mamoru, Do Politically Irrelevant Events Cause Conflicts? Professional Football in Europe and Protests in Africa (April 15, 2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3826861 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3826861

Kyosuke Kikuta (Contact Author)

Institute of Developing Economies ( email )

3-2-2 Wakaba
Mihama-ku
Chiba, Chiba 261-8545
Japan

Mamoru Uesugi

Osaka University - Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP) ( email )

1-31, Machikaneyama
Toyonaka, Osaka 560-0043
Japan

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