Same, but Different? a State-Level Chronology of the 2014-2016 Brazilian Economic Recession and Comparisons with the GFC and (Early Data On) COVID-19

Economics Bulletin Volume 40, Issue 3

13 Pages Posted: 26 Apr 2021

See all articles by Jefferson Colombo

Jefferson Colombo

Sao Paulo School of Economics (FGV EESP)

Martinho Lazzari

Departamento de Economia e Estatística da Secretaria de Planejamento, Governança e Gestão do Rio Grande do Sul

Date Written: September 24, 2020

Abstract

This paper identifies and discusses the regional heterogeneity of the Brazilian great economic recession of 2014-16. Specifically, we outline a state-level chronology of the recession by applying the Bry-Boschan algorithm, using the states' monthly index of economic activity as reference variables. The results indicate that the recession lasted 32 months, and the economic activity fell (peak to trough) 11.8% for the average Brazilian state. However, we find a significant heterogeneity regarding timing, duration, and magnitude of the recession -- on average, more industrialized states (with greater participation of the agricultural sector) entered before (after) and stayed more (less) in a state of recession. We also find the dispersion, severity, and diffusion of the 2014-16 recession across states was far more significant than in the 2008-09 economic recession. Finally, preliminary data suggests that the significant and widespread drop in regional economic activity following the COVID-19 shock is 12.7% and 77.1% larger than those observed in the 2014-16 and the 2008-09 recessions, respectively. Our results have critical implications for policymakers.

Keywords: State-level recessions, Brazil, heterogeneity of recessions, COVID-19

JEL Classification: E32, E01, H7

Suggested Citation

Colombo, Jefferson and Lazzari, Martinho, Same, but Different? a State-Level Chronology of the 2014-2016 Brazilian Economic Recession and Comparisons with the GFC and (Early Data On) COVID-19 (September 24, 2020). Economics Bulletin Volume 40, Issue 3, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3832865

Jefferson Colombo (Contact Author)

Sao Paulo School of Economics (FGV EESP) ( email )

Rua Itapeva 474 s.1202
São Paulo, São Paulo 01332-000
Brazil

HOME PAGE: http://https://eesp.fgv.br/integrante/jefferson-colombo

Martinho Lazzari

Departamento de Economia e Estatística da Secretaria de Planejamento, Governança e Gestão do Rio Grande do Sul ( email )

Rua Duque de Caxias, 1691
Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul 90010-283
Brazil

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