What Are the Factors Responsible for Increase in SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 Pandemic Related Cases and Death in India in 2021? How Does Environmental, Host & Agent Factors of Epidemiological Triad Do Influence & Can Be Utilised to Manage Ongoing Pandemic Cases and Deaths?

13 Pages Posted: 29 Apr 2021

See all articles by Dr. Piyush Kumar

Dr. Piyush Kumar

Government of Bihar - Department of Health; Health Department, Government of Bihar

Date Written: April 25, 2021

Abstract

Background: This time last year in 2020 India was under lockdown phase, many theories about India’s surprisingly low rates of Sars-CoV-2 infection included variety of factors including hot weather, natural immunity, heard immunity, robust health system, highly qualified doctors and the country’s high proportion of young people; some also attributed it to the country’s harsh lockdown. India was doing so well that in megacities like Mumbai and Delhi, officials had begun dismantling temporary COVID-19 facilities. Comparing it to current scenario in April 2021, cases and deaths are soaring. The shortage of beds and space is so acute that people are dying in car parks and other places while waiting to be admitted in hospitals. Daily rates are currently over 300,000, the world’s highest-ever daily infection rate.

The SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 pandemic is still going on and globally as well as in India particularly healthcare system is overstressed with this new burden added with previous NCD(non communicable diseases) & CD(communicable diseases). The First human case of this global pandemic was reported from Wuhan city of China in December 2019. The first case of COVID-19 in India was found in January 2020. Today India is having more than 3 lakh cases per day and thousands of deaths daily due to this pandemic. The situation is very worse as compared to previous year and is worsening day by day due to several factors.

Objective: The main objective of this study is to illustrate the key features of COVID-19 virus, host human beings factors, irresponsibility’s and environmental factors responsible for continuation and recurrence of this pandemic as well as worsening of pandemic day by day.

Setting and design: Different aspects of COVID-19 structural variations, mutations, host factors, environmental factors (internal & external) and its effect will be analysed. Brief details about epidemiological triad will be outlined.

Methodology: The explanation will be given to title through analysis of several factors responsible for increase in cases. The cause of perpetuation of COVID-19 can be understood by the way of infections and other related factors.

Result: Several factors are responsible for the continuation and worsening of pandemic situation in India of the pandemic. Of great concern today is a new ‘double mutant’ B1617 variant, identified in India last year, that is spreading across the country as well as triple variants discovered recently and studies are going on to know more. Although scientists are still investigating whether or not the variant is more deadly & more infectious, it does contain the L452R mutation that affects the virus' spike protein. This protein is very significant because through this the virus hooks on to our cells receptor. Early research suggests that this mutation makes the virus more infectious. This doesn’t necessarily mean that the variant will be any more deadly, but it means that more people are at risk.

Conclusion: In the epidemiological triad we have agent/host/environment. The clinical approach is based on individuals & standard treatment guidelines-protocols and public health approach is based on population strategy to control this pandemic. Various strategies and approaches are required to prevent epidemic through assessment of important parameters and indicators to control the ongoing disaster and hazards of pandemic.

Note: Funding Statement: Self sponsored. No aid taken from individual or agency etc.

Declaration of Interests: There are no conflicts / competing of interest.

Keywords: SARS-Cov-2, COVID-19, Pandemic, Strain, India, death, increase

Suggested Citation

Kumar, Piyush and Kumar, Piyush, What Are the Factors Responsible for Increase in SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 Pandemic Related Cases and Death in India in 2021? How Does Environmental, Host & Agent Factors of Epidemiological Triad Do Influence & Can Be Utilised to Manage Ongoing Pandemic Cases and Deaths? (April 25, 2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3833788 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3833788

Piyush Kumar (Contact Author)

Health Department, Government of Bihar ( email )

Health Department
Patna, Bihar 800001
India

Government of Bihar - Department of Health ( email )

Patna, Bihar
India

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