COVID-19 To Go? The Role of Disasters and Evacuation in the COVID-19 Pandemic

35 Pages Posted: 4 May 2021

See all articles by Courtney Page-Tan

Courtney Page-Tan

Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Department of Security and Emergency Services

Timothy Fraser

Northeastern University

Date Written: April 29, 2021

Abstract

Since the start of the pandemic, some U.S. communities have faced record storms, fires, and floods. Communities have confronted the increased challenge of curbing the spread of COVID-19 amid evacuation orders and short-term displacement that result from hazards. This raises the question of whether disasters, evacuations, and displacements have resulted in aboveaverage infection rates during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study investigates the relationship between disaster damage, sheltering-in-place, evacuation-related mobility, and contagion following Hurricane Zeta in Southeastern Louisiana and The Wildfires in Napa and Sonoma Counties, California, known as the Glass Fire. We draw on data from the county subdivision level and mapped and aggregated tallies of Facebook user movement from the Facebook Data for Good Program. We test the effects of disasters, evacuation, and shelter-in-place behaviors on COVID19 spread using panel data models, matched panel models, and synthetic control experiments. Our findings suggest associations between disaster damage and higher rates of COVID-19 cases. We also find that while sheltering-in-place led to decreases in the spread of COVID-19, evacuationrelated mobility did not result in our hypothesized surge of cases immediately after the disasters. The findings from this study aim to inform policymakers and scholars about how to better respond to disasters during multi-crisis events.

Keywords: evacuation, disaster, pandemic, resilience, COVID-19, GIS, networks

JEL Classification: P1, P4, Z18, D7, C31, I18

Suggested Citation

Tan, Courtney and Fraser, Timothy, COVID-19 To Go? The Role of Disasters and Evacuation in the COVID-19 Pandemic (April 29, 2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3836258 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3836258

Courtney Tan (Contact Author)

Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Department of Security and Emergency Services ( email )

United States

HOME PAGE: http://courtneypagetan.com

Timothy Fraser

Northeastern University ( email )

360 Huntington Ave,
Boston, MA 02115
United States

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