Replaying history’s tape: Convergent cultural evolution and the prospects of humanity after a social collapse

Abstract

A global catastrophe, such as an all-out thermonuclear war, may bring about the collapse of human civilization. The normative evaluation of such an outcome ought to consider (among other possibilities) the probability of the re-emergence of modern civilization after such an event and how soon such re-emergence could take place. In theoretical biology, a discussion relevant to this consideration has taken place between proponents of the “robustness thesis,” according to which the history of life is robust with regard to change, and the “fragility thesis,” according to which the history of life is contingent on specific conditions. Here, I discuss whether instances of cultural convergent evolution can be used to defend a robustness thesis about human history. In other words, should we expect that history will repeat itself after a collapse (or a “replaying of history’s tape”)? I also discuss the extent to which degrees of freedom with regard to cultural practices can inform these considerations. I argue that (1) we have no evidence that suggests that a modern and industrialized civilization is likely to re-emerge in a “replay” scenario and (2) that if such a re-emergence were to take place, it would likely occur later rather than sooner.

Keywords: Cultural evolution, convergent evolution, social collapse, global catastrophic risk, existential risk, population ethics