Fast Locations and Slowing Labor Mobility

121 Pages Posted: 14 May 2021

See all articles by Kyle Mangum

Kyle Mangum

Georgia State University - Department of Economics; Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Patrick Coate

National Council on Compensation Insurance

Date Written: December 1, 2019

Abstract

Declining internal migration in the United States is driven by increasing home attachment in locations with previously high rates of population turnover. These “fast locations” were the population growth destinations of the 20th century, where home attachments were once low but have increased as regional population growth has converged. Using a novel measure of home attachment, this paper estimates a structural model of migration that distinguishes moving frictions from home utility. Simulations quantify candidate explanations of the decline. Rising home attachment accounts for most of the mobility decline, and its effect is consistent with the observed spatial pattern. Population aging explains most of the remainder but in a more spatially neutral way. The paper then uses a stylized island economy model featuring endogenous home attachments to show that after a shock, gross migration returns to steady state much more slowly than net population change.

JEL Classification: C50, J61, R11, R23

Suggested Citation

Mangum, Kyle and Mangum, Kyle and Coate, Patrick, Fast Locations and Slowing Labor Mobility (December 1, 2019). FRB of Philadelphia Working Paper No. 19-49, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3843805 or http://dx.doi.org/10.21799/frbp.wp.2019.49

Kyle Mangum

Georgia State University - Department of Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 3992
Atlanta, GA 30302-3992
United States

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia ( email )

Ten Independence Mall
Philadelphia, PA 19106-1574
United States

Patrick Coate (Contact Author)

National Council on Compensation Insurance ( email )

5 Marine View Plaza, 4th Floor
Hoboken, NJ 07030-5722
United States

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