The Construction of Illicit Tobacco Trade Index

Abstract

Background: We constructed a composite index, which measures the enabling factors of illicit tobacco trade for 160 countries.

Data and Methods: We collected the most recent and best available data for various variables on general governance, tobacco control policies, trade and customs practices. These factors are known determinants of illicit tobacco trade. We used geometric aggregation method to calculate the score for each country. The higher the score the lower vulnerability of a country to illicit tobacco trade.

Results: The ITT index scores of 160 countries ranged from 0.1 to 0.69. We observed a strong positive relationship between ITT index scores and GNI per capita and negative relationship with the share of illicit tobacco trade to total tobacco consumption. Several high-income countries have notably lower ITT scores.

Conclusion: The ITT index could be used to track the enabling factors of illicit tobacco trade. Low and middle-income countries are more vulnerable to illicit tobacco trade as suggested by the lower ITT score. The lower ITT score in LMICs was largely driven by the relatively low scores in tobacco control policies and trade and custom practices and conditions.

Keywords: tobacco, illicit trade, index