Interest Rates Forecasting: Between Hull and White and the CIR#. How to Make a Single Factor Model Work

Orlando, G, Bufalo, M. Interest rates forecasting: between Hull and White and the CIR#. How to make a single factor model work. Journal of Forecasting. 2021. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2783

Posted: 18 May 2021

See all articles by Giuseppe Orlando

Giuseppe Orlando

Università degli Studi di Bari “Aldo Moro” (UNIBA) - Department of Economics and Mathematical Methods; Università degli Studi di Camerino - School of Science and Technologies

Michele Bufalo

Sapienza University of Rome

Date Written: May 2, 2021

Abstract

In this work we present our findings of the so‐called CIR#, which is a modified version of the Cox, Ingersoll & Ross (CIR) model, turned into a forecasting tool for any term structure. The main feature of the CIR# model is its ability to cope with negative interest rates, cluster volatility and jumps. By considering a dataset composed of money market interest rates during turmoil and calmer periods, we show how the CIR# performs in terms of directionality of rates and forecasting error. Comparison is carried out with a revamped version of the CIR model (denoted CIRadj), the Hull and White model and the EWMA which is often adopted whenever no structure in data is assumed. Testing and validation is performed on both historical and had hoc data with different metrics and clustering criteria to confirm the analysis.

Keywords: Interest rate forecasting, Hull and White model, CIR model, ARIMA, cluster volatility and jumps fitting

JEL Classification: G12, E43, E47

Suggested Citation

Orlando, Giuseppe and Bufalo, Michele, Interest Rates Forecasting: Between Hull and White and the CIR#. How to Make a Single Factor Model Work (May 2, 2021). Orlando, G, Bufalo, M. Interest rates forecasting: between Hull and White and the CIR#. How to make a single factor model work. Journal of Forecasting. 2021. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2783 , Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3847157

Giuseppe Orlando (Contact Author)

Università degli Studi di Bari “Aldo Moro” (UNIBA) - Department of Economics and Mathematical Methods ( email )

Via C. Rosalba 53
VI Floor, Room 12
Bari, 70124
Italy
+39 080 5049218 (Phone)

Università degli Studi di Camerino - School of Science and Technologies ( email )

Via M. delle Carceri 9
Camerino, 62032
Italy

Michele Bufalo

Sapienza University of Rome ( email )

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