Forecasting Base Metal Prices with an International Stock Index
14 Pages Posted: 23 May 2021
Date Written: May 19, 2021
In this paper we show that the MSCI ACWI Metals and Mining Index has the ability to predict base metal prices. We use both in-sample and out-of-sample exercises to conduct such examination. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the present-value model for stock-price determination. This model has the implication of Granger causality from stock prices to their key determinants. In the case of metal and mining producers, one of the key elements determining the value of these firms is the price of the commodity they produce and export. Our results are consistent with this theoretical framework, as forecasts based on a model including the MSCI index outperform, in terms of Mean Squared Prediction Error, forecasts that do not use the information contained in that index.
Keywords: Forecasting, commodities, base metals, univariate time-series models, out-of-sample comparison, base metal equity securities.
JEL Classification: C52, C53, G17, E270, E370, F370, L740, O180, R310
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