Exploiting Payments to Track Italian Economic Activity: The Experience at Banca D’Italia

33 Pages Posted: 24 May 2021

See all articles by Valentina Aprigliano

Valentina Aprigliano

Bank of Italy

Guerino Ardizzi

Bank of Italy

Alessia Cassetta

Bank of Italy

Alessandro Cavallero

Bank of Italy

Simone Emiliozzi

Bank of Italy

Alessandro Gambini

Bank of Italy; Università Politecnica delle Marche - Department of Economics and Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.); Centre for Macroeconomics & Finance Research (CeMaFiR)

Roberta Zizza

Bank of Italy

Nazzareno Renzi

Bank of Italy

Date Written: March 18, 2021

Abstract

This paper provides an overview of how information on payments has been recently exploited by Banca d’Italia staff for the purposes of tracking economic activity and forecasting. In particular, the payment data used for this work are drawn from the payment systems managed by Banca d’Italia (BI-COMP and TARGET2) and from the Anti-Money Laundering Aggregate Reports submitted by banks and by Poste Italiane to the Banca d’Italia’s Financial Intelligence Unit (Unità di Informazione Finanziaria, UIF). We show that indicators drawn from these sources can improve forecasting accuracy; in particular, those available at a higher frequency have proved crucial to properly assessing the state of the economy during the pandemic. Moreover, these indicators make it possible to assess changes in agents’ behaviour, notably with reference to payment habits, and, thanks to their granularity, to delve deeper into the macroeconomic trends, exploring heterogeneity by sector and geography.

Keywords: short term forecasting, high-frequency data, payment systems, TARGET2, money laundering, COVID-19

JEL Classification: C53, E17, E27, E32, E37, E42

Suggested Citation

Aprigliano, Valentina and Ardizzi, Guerino and Cassetta, Alessia and Cavallero, Alessandro and Emiliozzi, Simone and Gambini, Alessandro and Zizza, Roberta and Renzi, Nazzareno, Exploiting Payments to Track Italian Economic Activity: The Experience at Banca D’Italia (March 18, 2021). Bank of Italy Occasional Paper No. 609, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3852157 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3852157

Valentina Aprigliano

Bank of Italy ( email )

Via Nazionale 91
Rome, 00184
Italy

Guerino Ardizzi

Bank of Italy ( email )

Via Nazionale 91
Rome, 00184
Italy

Alessia Cassetta

Bank of Italy ( email )

Via Nazionale 91
Rome, 00184
Italy

Alessandro Cavallero

Bank of Italy ( email )

Via Nazionale 91
Rome, 00184
Italy

Simone Emiliozzi

Bank of Italy ( email )

Via Nazionale 91
Rome, 00184
Italy

Alessandro Gambini

Bank of Italy ( email )

Via Nazionale 91
Rome, 00184
Italy

Università Politecnica delle Marche - Department of Economics and Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) ( email )

Piazzale Martelli 8
60121 Ancona
Italy
+39 0712207230 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.mofir.univpm.it

Centre for Macroeconomics & Finance Research (CeMaFiR) ( email )

Piazza Mirabello 2
Milano, 20100
Italy

Roberta Zizza (Contact Author)

Bank of Italy ( email )

Via Nazionale 91
00184 Roma
Italy

Nazzareno Renzi

Bank of Italy ( email )

Via Nazionale 91
Rome, 00184
Italy

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
29
Abstract Views
146
PlumX Metrics