The Role of Political Belief in COVID-19 Vaccine Resistance, Virus Transmission, and Closure Policy Response

Vaccines 2023, 11, 1046. https://doi.org/10.3390/ vaccines11061046

19 Pages Posted: 21 Jun 2021 Last revised: 6 Jun 2023

See all articles by Danny Ben-Shahar

Danny Ben-Shahar

Tel Aviv University

Stuart A. Gabriel

University of California, Los Angeles - Anderson School of Management

Roni Golan

Technion-Israel Institute of Technology; Tel Aviv University - Coller School of Management

Date Written: May 31, 2023

Abstract

We employ unique panel data on the universe of COVID-19 vaccination and infection cases in Israel to examine the role of political belief in COVID-19 vaccine uptake, virus transmission, and closure policy response. The paper identifies political beliefs based on statistical area votes in national elections held in Israel on the eve of the COVID-19 outbreak in March 2020. Unlike the U.S. and elsewhere, pandemic policy intervention in Israel was broadly supported by politicians across the belief spectrum. As such, household response to virus risk was not biased by contemporaneous partisan disagreement and debate among political leaders. Findings show, all things equal, that in the wake of emergent and localized virus risk, voters in politically right-of-center and religious areas displayed substantially higher odds of both vaccine resistance and virus transmission as compared to their left-center counterparts. Moreover, political belief is highly salient to aggregate pandemic outcomes. Model simulation shows that had all areas responded to virus risk with the more risk averse behaviors of left-of-center areas, the number of vaccinations nationwide would have increased by 15 percent. That same scenario results in a full 30 percent reduction in total infection cases. Results also show that coercive policy measures such as economic closure were more effective in reducing virus transmission among less risk-averse right-wing and religious areas. Findings provide new evidence of the role of political belief in household response to health risks. Results further underscore the importance of timely, targeted messaging and intervention among divergent political belief groups to reduce vaccine hesitancy and enhance disease control. Future studies should explore the external validity of findings, including the use of individual voter data, if available, to evaluate political belief effects.

Note: Funding Statement: We thank the Alrov Institute for Real Estate Research at Tel Aviv University for the financial support.

Declaration of Interests: We hereby declare that there are no competing interests pertinent to this paper.

Keywords: political belief; health risk; public policy; COVID-19; vaccine resistance; closure response; policy response

JEL Classification: I18, I12, R00, H12, D91

Suggested Citation

Ben-Shahar, Danny and Gabriel, Stuart A. and Golan, Roni, The Role of Political Belief in COVID-19 Vaccine Resistance, Virus Transmission, and Closure Policy Response (May 31, 2023). Vaccines 2023, 11, 1046. https://doi.org/10.3390/ vaccines11061046, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3854085 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3854085

Danny Ben-Shahar

Tel Aviv University ( email )

Tel Aviv
Israel

Stuart A. Gabriel (Contact Author)

University of California, Los Angeles - Anderson School of Management ( email )

110 Westwood Plaza
Los Angeles, CA 90095-1481
United States
310-825-2922 (Phone)
310-206-5455 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.anderson.ucla.edu

Roni Golan

Technion-Israel Institute of Technology ( email )

Technion City
Haifa 32000, Haifa 32000
Israel

Tel Aviv University - Coller School of Management ( email )

Tel Aviv
Israel

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