US Stock-Bond Correlation: What are the Macroeconomic Drivers?

Abstract

US stock-bond correlation, which plays an important role in institutional portfolio construction, has been persistently negative for the last 20y. This negative correlation allows stocks and bonds to serve as a hedge for each other, enabling CIOs to increase stock allocations while still satisfying a portfolio risk budget. However, stock-bond correlation is not immutable. In fact, it was consistently positive for more than 30y prior to 2000. A return to positively correlated stock and bond returns may require CIOs to rethink their asset allocation.

Keywords: IAS, PGIM, PGIM IAS, Institutional Advisory & Solutions, Portfolio construction, Stock, Bond, Correlation, Macroeconomic, Macroeconomic Drivers, Correlation Regime, Negative Correlation, Positive Correlation, Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, Institutional Portfolios, Asset Allocation, Returns