Explaining Technology

47 Pages Posted: 1 Jun 2021

See all articles by Roger Koppl

Roger Koppl

Syracuse University

Abigail Devereaux

Wichita State University

Sergi Valverde

Universitat Pompeu Fabra

Ricard Solé

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Stuart Kauffman

Institute for Systems Biology

James Herriot

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Date Written: May 30, 2021

Abstract

We propose a mathematical model of the combinatorial evolution of technology (“TAP”), which
explains three radically and unexplained different data sets. First, global GDP per capita
increased at a glacial pace from the beginning of the common era about 2000 years ago to about
1800, when it exploded upward increasing global and per capita wealth. TAP explains this
“hockey stick of economic growth” as due mostly to the combinatorial explosion in the variety
of good produced. Second, the diversity of goods from simple to complex has also exploded in
the past 2000 years. TAP may also explain this characteristic pattern in technological evolution.
Third, we consider US patent citations from 1835-2010. These data exhibit a power law in the
distribution of direct and indirect descendants. One patent is a direct descendant of another if it
incorporates the first patent’s technology. Indirect descendants are the “children” and
“grandchildren” and so on of direct descendants. Power laws fitted by earlier researchers
consider only direct descendants and ignore indirect descendants. The same TAP process
predicts such a power law. The same simple TAP theory of cumulative combinatorial invention
can explain three very different sets of data covering different segments of time and space. This
“tri-data result” is strong evidence for both the general combinatorial approach we share with
many other researchers and our unique mathematical model of it.

Keywords: adjacent possible,growth,combinatorial explosion,history

Suggested Citation

Koppl, Roger and Devereaux, Abigail and Valverde, Sergi and Solé, Ricard and Kauffman, Stuart and Herriot, James, Explaining Technology (May 30, 2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3856338 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3856338

Roger Koppl

Syracuse University ( email )

900 S. Crouse Avenue
Syracuse, NY 13244-2130
United States
3154434535 (Phone)
3154421449 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://whitman.syr.edu/faculty-and-research/faculty/showInfo.aspx?id=468

Abigail Devereaux (Contact Author)

Wichita State University ( email )

Wichita, KS 67260-0078
United States

Sergi Valverde

Universitat Pompeu Fabra ( email )

Ramon Trias Fargas, 25-27
Barcelona, E-08005
Spain

Ricard Solé

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Stuart Kauffman

Institute for Systems Biology ( email )

401 Terry Ave N.
Seattle, WA 98109
United States

James Herriot

affiliation not provided to SSRN

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