Greening China's BRI in Central Asian Countries: The Role of Hydrogen Towards Net-Zero Future

Abstract

No study has analyzed the impact of China’s hydrogen economy on its border Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries under a regional long-term nearly-zero vision. However, China is facing new challenges for green BRI because of its net-zero carbon emission target for 2060. Central Asia Caspian countries (CACs), as important oil and gas export BRI countries are facing obstacles to reduce their fossil fuel consumption toward a net-zero world. Hydrogen has been long ignored in China and CACs’ energy system. We argue in this study that regional cooperation can bring significant carbon mitigation toward a net-zero world. Results show that, first, green hydrogen in China’s final energy demands could continue to increase and reach 7.9% in 2050 and 11.5% in 2060. Beyond its domestic hydrogen demand, up to 1,500 PJ green hydrogen surplus could be exported. Second, CACs could potentially gain significant co-benefits from the green hydrogen surplus from China, with total CO 2 emissions reduced by 15%–17% in 2050 compared with the reference scenario. Green hydrogen-based renewables help clean the domestic gray hydrogen production based on gas. The hydrogen surplus plays the role of “green-maker” in Chinese captive investments in the energy systems in CACs. In the long run, this study provides a new perspective for China’s green BRI to enhance regional energy transition towards the net-zero future.

Keywords: China’s BRI, Central Asia Caspian countries, net-zero emission, hydrogen, synergies