Applying Lessons from the Past? Exploring Historical Analogies in ECB Speeches through Text Mining, 1997-2019

Küsters, Anselm: Applying Lessons from the Past? Exploring Historical Analogies in ECB Speeches through Text Mining, 1997-2019, International Journal of Central Banking (2022 Forthcoming)

Küsters, Anselm: Applying Lessons of the Past? Exploring ECB Speeches during the Great Recession, UPIER Working Paper 18/2 (2018), https://upier.web.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/upier/documents/media/working_paper_kuesters.pdf?time=1543681180336.

Max Planck Institute for Legal History and Legal Theory Research Paper Series No. 2021-10

39 Pages Posted: 11 Jun 2021

See all articles by Anselm Küsters

Anselm Küsters

Max Planck Institute for Legal History and Legal Theory

Date Written: June 4, 2021

Abstract

By employing Text Mining methods such as Structural Topic Modeling to examine all 2,135 speeches by ECB Executive Board members between February 1997 and October 2019, this paper identifies and analyses a significant semantic change that occurred in ECB communication in the transition from Great Moderation to Great Recession. The methodology also allows for a structured and empirical assessment of the hypothesis that central bankers used ‘lessons from the past’ during the crisis. The quantitative and qualitative results indicate that references to historical analogies indeed increased at the height of the crisis (2009-11) but often served only rhetorical functions.

Keywords: ECB, Great Recession, Lessons from the past, Text mining, Topic Modeling

Suggested Citation

Küsters, Anselm, Applying Lessons from the Past? Exploring Historical Analogies in ECB Speeches through Text Mining, 1997-2019 (June 4, 2021). Küsters, Anselm: Applying Lessons from the Past? Exploring Historical Analogies in ECB Speeches through Text Mining, 1997-2019, International Journal of Central Banking (2022 Forthcoming), Küsters, Anselm: Applying Lessons of the Past? Exploring ECB Speeches during the Great Recession, UPIER Working Paper 18/2 (2018), https://upier.web.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/upier/documents/media/working_paper_kuesters.pdf?time=1543681180336., Max Planck Institute for Legal History and Legal Theory Research Paper Series No. 2021-10, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3861671 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3861671

Anselm Küsters (Contact Author)

Max Planck Institute for Legal History and Legal Theory ( email )

Hansaallee 41
Frankfurt am Main, 60323
Germany

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