Sentencing Decisions Around Quantity Thresholds: Theory and Experiment

Abstract

To limit sentencing disparities, criminal codes divide offenses into subsections with specific sentencing ranges. To do so, they often use quantity thresholds (e.g. drug amount). We study the effects of such quantity thresholds on sentencing decisions and argue that the threshold effect can be decomposed into two opposing mechanisms: the severity and the reference mechanisms. We conduct a vignette experiment with Czech prosecutors and find that quantity thresholds drive substantial increases in sentences and thus lead to a new source of sentencing disparities. In the most striking case, the quantity threshold increases the average recommended sentence between two marginally different cases by 55%. Finally, using a new parametric measure of (in)justice, we quantify the effect of thresholds on the probability of a just sentence for a given level of tolerance.

Keywords: sentencing, quantity threshold, sentencing disparities, experiment, prosecutors