Long-term Economic Effects of Aridification on the GDPs of Africa and Asia

37 Pages Posted: 21 Jun 2021

See all articles by Maurizio Malpede

Maurizio Malpede

GREEN, Bocconi University

Marco Percoco

Bocconi University - Department of Policy Analysis and Public Management

Date Written: May 10, 2021

Abstract

We examine the effects of human-induced desertification on economic growth by exploiting a 56 km-by-56 km grid-cell global dataset on the annual frequency from 1990–2015. We find that areas that experienced large soil aridification are associated with a reduction in GDP per capita. Our results indicate that from 1990–2015, aridification reduced the GDPs of African and Asian countries by 12% and 2.7%, respectively. Our estimates are robust to adding higher-order terms of geo-climatic variables and controlling for country-specific linear trends, which allows us to project future costs of desertification. Our findings show that desertification will generate losses in GDP growth by 16% and 6.7% in Africa and Asia, respectively.

Suggested Citation

Malpede, Maurizio and Percoco, Marco, Long-term Economic Effects of Aridification on the GDPs of Africa and Asia (May 10, 2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3863956 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3863956

Maurizio Malpede (Contact Author)

GREEN, Bocconi University ( email )

Via Sarfatti, 25
Milan, MI 20136
Italy

Marco Percoco

Bocconi University - Department of Policy Analysis and Public Management ( email )

Via Roentgen 1
Milan, 20136
Italy

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