Back to the Present: Learning About the Euro Area Through a Now-Casting Model
46 Pages Posted: 14 Jun 2021
Date Written: March, 2021
We build a model for simultaneously now-casting economic conditions in the euro area and its three largest member countries--Germany, France, and Italy. The model formalizes how market participants and policymakers monitor the euro area by incorporating all market moving indicators in real time. We find that area wide and country-specific data provide informative signals to now-cast the economic conditions in the euro area and member countries. The model provides accurate predictions of economic conditions in real time over a period that covers the past three recessions.
JEL Classification: C33, C53, E37
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation