Voting for Tomorrow: Climate Change, Environmental Concern, and Green Voting

Dondena Working Paper Series n.146 (2021)

61 Pages Posted: 30 Jun 2021

See all articles by Roman Hoffmann

Roman Hoffmann

University of Vienna - Vienna Institute of Demography

Raya Muttarak

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); University of Vienna - Vienna Institute of Demography

Jonas Peisker

University of Vienna - Vienna Institute of Demography

Piero Stanig

Bocconi University - DONDENA - Carlo F. Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics

Date Written: June 17, 2021

Abstract

In the past decade, the world has witnessed increased climate change impacts with many countries experiencing more frequent and more severe climate extremes. With public support being fundamental in scaling up climate action, here, we analyze the impact of exposure to climate extremes on environmental concern and Green voting for a large panel of European countries. Combining high-resolution climatological data with regionally aggregated and harmonized information on environmental concern (42 Eurobarometer surveys, 2002-2019, 34 countries) and European Parliamentary electoral outcomes (7 elections, 1990-2019, 28 countries) at the subnational level, we find a significant and sizeable effect of temperature anomalies, heat episodes and dry spells in the previous 12 months on green concern and voting. The effects differ significantly by region and are most pronounced in regions with a cooler Continental or temperate Atlantic climate, and weaker in regions with a warmer Mediterranean climate. The relationship is moderated by regional GDP suggesting that climate change experience increase public support for climate action only under favorable economic conditions. By empirically documenting the important role of contextual influences and regional differences on green concern and voting, our findings have important implications for the current efforts to promote and implement climate actions in line with the Paris Agreement.

Suggested Citation

Hoffmann, Roman and Muttarak, Raya and Peisker, Jonas and Stanig, Piero, Voting for Tomorrow: Climate Change, Environmental Concern, and Green Voting (June 17, 2021). Dondena Working Paper Series n.146 (2021), Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3868754 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3868754

Roman Hoffmann

University of Vienna - Vienna Institute of Demography ( email )

Prinz Eugenstr. 8-10
Vienna, 1040
Austria

Raya Muttarak

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) ( email )

Schlossplatz 1
Laxenburg, A-2361
Austria

HOME PAGE: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/WorldPopulation/Staff/Raya-Muttarak.en.htm

University of Vienna - Vienna Institute of Demography ( email )

Prinz Eugenstr. 8-10
Vienna, 1040
Austria

Jonas Peisker

University of Vienna - Vienna Institute of Demography ( email )

Prinz Eugenstr. 8-10
Vienna, 1040
Austria

Piero Stanig (Contact Author)

Bocconi University - DONDENA - Carlo F. Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics ( email )

Via Roentgen 1
Milan, 20136
Italy

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