The Ohio Vaccine Lottery and Starting Vaccination Rates

26 Pages Posted: 17 Aug 2021

See all articles by Margaret Brehm

Margaret Brehm

Oberlin College - Department of Economics

Paul Brehm

Oberlin College - Department of Economics

Martin Hugo Saavedra

Oberlin College - Department of Economics

Date Written: June 27, 2021

Abstract

We find that Ohio's "Vax-a-Million" lottery increased Covid-19 vaccinations by between 50,000 and 80,000 doses in the first two weeks. We use county-level data and two empirical approaches to provide causal estimates of the lottery in Ohio. First, we use a difference-in-differences design, comparing vaccination rates in border counties in Ohio and Indiana before and after the announcement. Second, we use a pooled synthetic control method to construct a counterfactual for each of Ohio's counties using control counties in Indiana, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. The synthetic control analysis reveals larger increases in vaccination rates in more populous counties. At a cost of $5,600,000, our estimates imply that the lottery increased vaccinations for about $85 per starting dose during this period.

Note: Funding: We received no funding for this project.

Declaration of Interests: All three authors and their eligible immediate family members entered the Vax-a-Million lottery and were not selected.

Suggested Citation

Brehm, Margaret and Brehm, Paul and Saavedra, Martin Hugo, The Ohio Vaccine Lottery and Starting Vaccination Rates (June 27, 2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3875021 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3875021

Margaret Brehm

Oberlin College - Department of Economics ( email )

Oberlin, OH 44074
United States

Paul Brehm

Oberlin College - Department of Economics ( email )

Oberlin, OH 44074
United States

Martin Hugo Saavedra (Contact Author)

Oberlin College - Department of Economics ( email )

Oberlin, OH 44074
United States

HOME PAGE: http://sites.google.com/view/martinsaavedra/

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