The Ohio Vaccine Lottery and Starting Vaccination Rates
26 Pages Posted: 17 Aug 2021
Date Written: June 27, 2021
We find that Ohio's "Vax-a-Million" lottery increased Covid-19 vaccinations by between 50,000 and 80,000 doses in the first two weeks. We use county-level data and two empirical approaches to provide causal estimates of the lottery in Ohio. First, we use a difference-in-differences design, comparing vaccination rates in border counties in Ohio and Indiana before and after the announcement. Second, we use a pooled synthetic control method to construct a counterfactual for each of Ohio's counties using control counties in Indiana, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. The synthetic control analysis reveals larger increases in vaccination rates in more populous counties. At a cost of $5,600,000, our estimates imply that the lottery increased vaccinations for about $85 per starting dose during this period.
Note: Funding: We received no funding for this project.
Declaration of Interests: All three authors and their eligible immediate family members entered the Vax-a-Million lottery and were not selected.
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