Attack rate of COVID-19 and the onset of herd immunity in Manaus, Brazil

8 Pages Posted: 7 Jul 2021

See all articles by Daihai He

Daihai He

Hong Kong Polytechnic University - Department of Applied Mathematics

Yael Artzy-Randrup

University of Amsterdam

Salihu S. Musa

Hong Kong Polytechnic University - Department of Applied Mathematics

Tiago Gräf

Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ) - Gonçalo Moniz Institute (IGM)

Pedro C Hallal

Federal University of Pelotas (UFPel)

Felipe Gomes Naveca

Instituto Leônidas & Maria Deane (Fiocruz)

Lewi Stone

RMIT University - School of Science

Date Written: June 29, 2021

Abstract

Buss et al. (2021) and Faria et al. (2021) reported that ~76% of the residents of the capital city of Manaus, had been infected by SARS-CoV-2 by October 2020 suggesting that herd immunity had been achieved by the end of the first wave. But the announcement of herd immunity, which would imply reasonable protection from future outbreaks, only provided the Manaus population with a false sense of security. Within two months later, a second wave of COVID-19 was initiated with death rates much larger than the first attributed to the appearance of the new P.1 Variant of Concern. Faria et al. (2021) suggest that large scale reinfections played an important role in enabling the huge second epidemic wave. In this Technical Comment we challenge such interpretations, and provide quantitative arguments that suggest the attack rate of the first wave was well below 76%. We then present alternative interpretations of the data.

Note: Funding: DH was supported by Collaborative Research Fund (C7123-20G) of the Research Grants Council (RGC) of Hong Kong, China

Declaration of Interests: N.A. per author

Keywords: COVID-19; Manaus; Attack Rate; Herd-immunity; Variant

Suggested Citation

He, Daihai and Artzy-Randrup, Yael and Musa, Salihu S and Gräf, Tiago and Hallal, Pedro C and Naveca, Felipe Gomes and Stone, Lewi, Attack rate of COVID-19 and the onset of herd immunity in Manaus, Brazil (June 29, 2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3876334 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3876334

Daihai He (Contact Author)

Hong Kong Polytechnic University - Department of Applied Mathematics ( email )

Hong Kong
China

Yael Artzy-Randrup

University of Amsterdam ( email )

Spui 21
Amsterdam, 1018 WB
Netherlands

Salihu S Musa

Hong Kong Polytechnic University - Department of Applied Mathematics ( email )

Hong Kong
China

Tiago Gräf

Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ) - Gonçalo Moniz Institute (IGM) ( email )

Brazil

Pedro C Hallal

Federal University of Pelotas (UFPel)

Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul, RS
Brazil

Felipe Gomes Naveca

Instituto Leônidas & Maria Deane (Fiocruz) ( email )

Manaus
Brazil

Lewi Stone

RMIT University - School of Science ( email )

124 La Trobe Street
Melbourne, 3000
Australia

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