Betting on Conspiracy Theories: Kurt Godel and ‘The Leibniz Cover-Up’

33 Pages Posted: 4 Aug 2021

See all articles by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

F. E. Guerra-Pujol

University of Central Florida; Pontifical Catholic University of Puerto Rico

Date Written: July 9, 2021


My contribution to this 2021 symposium on “Alternative Realities, Conspiracy Theory, and the Constitutional and Democratic Order” will explore a little-known conspiracy theory: The Leibniz Conspiracy. Although this particular conspiracy theory is a relatively benign and trivial one in the larger scheme of things, it nevertheless merits careful study because of the man who invented it, the great logician Kurt Gödel. That one the greatest minds of all time could formulate such an elaborate and far-fetched conspiracy theory shows us why beliefs in conspiracies are so compelling, widespread, and unavoidable and also why most psychological explanations of conspiracy theories are off the mark. In the alternative, I will propose a Conspiracy Theory Betting Market. In brief, a betting market would aggregate all available information about the truth values of various conspiracy theories by allowing people to bet on their beliefs about past events.

Keywords: Betting Markets, Conspiracy Theories, Kurt Godel,

JEL Classification: C53, D47, D82

Suggested Citation

Guerra-Pujol, F. E., Betting on Conspiracy Theories: Kurt Godel and ‘The Leibniz Cover-Up’ (July 9, 2021). Available at SSRN: or

F. E. Guerra-Pujol (Contact Author)

University of Central Florida ( email )

Orlando, FL 32816
United States


Pontifical Catholic University of Puerto Rico ( email )

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