The Gödel Conspiracy

University of St Thomas Journal of Law & Public Policy, Vol. 15 (2022)

33 Pages Posted: 4 Aug 2021 Last revised: 3 Feb 2022

See all articles by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Pontifical Catholic University of Puerto Rico; University of Central Florida

Date Written: January 29, 2022


This Article explores a little-known conspiracy theory: The Gödel Conspiracy. Although this particular conspiracy theory is a relatively minor one in the larger scheme of things, it nevertheless merits careful study because of the man who invented it, the logician Kurt Gödel. That one of the most logical and rigorous thinkers of all time could formulate such an elaborate and far-fetched conspiracy theory shows us why beliefs in conspiracies are so compelling, widespread, and unavoidable and also why most psychological and social explanations of conspiracy theories are off the mark. In the alternative, the Article will propose a Conspiracy Theory Retrodiction Market. In brief, a betting market would aggregate all available information about the truth values of various conspiracy theories by allowing people to bet on their beliefs about past events.

Keywords: Conspiracy Theories, Kurt Gödel, Retrodiction Market

JEL Classification: C53, D47, D82

Suggested Citation

Guerra-Pujol, F. E., The Gödel Conspiracy (January 29, 2022). University of St Thomas Journal of Law & Public Policy, Vol. 15 (2022), Available at SSRN: or

F. E. Guerra-Pujol (Contact Author)

Pontifical Catholic University of Puerto Rico ( email )

University of Central Florida ( email )

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