A Contribution to the Chronology of Turning Points in Global Economic Activity (1980-2012)

Posted: 14 Jul 2021

See all articles by Valerie Grossman

Valerie Grossman

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Adrienne Mack

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Enrique Martínez-García

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas - Research Department

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: January, 2014

Abstract

The Database of Global Economic Indicators (DGEI) of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is aimed at standardizing and disseminating world economic indicators for the study of globalization. It includes a core sample of 40 countries with available indicators and broad coverage for quarterly real GDP, and the monthly series of industrial production (IP), Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), merchandise exports and imports, headline CPI, CPI (ex. food and energy), PPI/WPI inflation, nominal and real exchange rates, and official/policy interest rates (see Grossman, Mack, and Martnez-Garca (2013)). This paper aims to codify in a systematic way the chronology of global business cycles for DGEI. We propose a novel chronology based on IP data for a sample of 84 countries at a monthly frequency from 1980 until now, and assess the turning points obtained as a signal of the underlying state of the economy as tracked by the indicators of DGEI. We conclude by proposing and also evaluating global recession probability forecasts up to 12 months ahead. The logit model proposed uses the DGEI aggregate indicators to offer advanced warning of turning point in the global cycle?by this metric a global downturn in 2013 does not appear likely.

JEL Classification: C14, C82, E32, E65

Suggested Citation

Grossman, Valerie and Mack, Adrienne and Martinez-Garcia, Enrique, A Contribution to the Chronology of Turning Points in Global Economic Activity (1980-2012) (January, 2014). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3885382 or http://dx.doi.org/10.24149/gwp169

Valerie Grossman (Contact Author)

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas ( email )

2200 North Pearl Street
PO Box 655906
Dallas, TX 75265-5906
United States

Adrienne Mack

affiliation not provided to SSRN

No Address Available

Enrique Martinez-Garcia

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas - Research Department ( email )

2200 North Pearl Street
PO Box 655906
Dallas, TX 75265-5906
United States
214-922-5262 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://sites.google.com/view/emgeconomics

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