The Impact of COVID-19 on Economic Activity: Evidence from Administrative Tax Registers

26 Pages Posted: 20 Jul 2021

See all articles by Nikolay Angelov

Nikolay Angelov

Swedish Tax Agency; Uppsala Centre for Fiscal Studies

Daniel Waldenström

Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: 2021

Abstract

We use population-wide tax register data to document the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on firm sales, tax revenues, and sick pay in Sweden. The pandemic impact is identified using within-year, between-year, and geographical variation, and our data allows us to run placebo tests. Our findings confirm the large negative effects of the pandemic, but shed new light on their magnitudes and sensitivity to COVID-19 morbidity rates. Specifically, we find that the impact on VAT and firm sales was larger than on commonly used industrial and service production indexes, larger than the effect on electricity for industrial use, but less than the effect on excise taxes on air travel. The pandemic’s impact on short-term sick pay is large, but unlike tax payments, it does not vary with local infection rates, indicating behavioral responses to more generous rules for sickness insurance during the pandemic.

JEL Classification: H240, H250, J220, J240

Suggested Citation

Angelov, Nikolay and Waldenström, Daniel, The Impact of COVID-19 on Economic Activity: Evidence from Administrative Tax Registers (2021). CESifo Working Paper No. 9182, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3885425 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3885425

Nikolay Angelov (Contact Author)

Swedish Tax Agency ( email )

Sweden

Uppsala Centre for Fiscal Studies ( email )

Sweden

Daniel Waldenström

Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN) ( email )

Box 55665
Grevgatan 34, 2nd floor
Stockholm, SE-102 15
Sweden

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