Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions

54 Pages Posted: 14 Jul 2021

See all articles by Christiane Baumeister

Christiane Baumeister

University of Notre Dame - University of Pretoria - NBER - CEPR - Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, ANU

Danilo Leiva-Leon

Banco de España

Eric R. Sims

University of Michigan at Ann Arbor; University of Notre Dame - Department of Economics

Date Written: July 2021

Abstract

In this paper, we develop a novel dataset of weekly economic conditions indices for the 50 U.S. states going back to 1987 based on mixed-frequency dynamic factor models with weekly, monthly, and quarterly variables that cover multiple dimensions of state economies. We show that there is considerable heterogeneity in the length, depth, and timing of business cycles across individual states. We assess the role of states in national recessions and propose an aggregate indicator that allows us to gauge the overall weakness of the U.S. economy. We also illustrate the usefulness of these state-level indices for quantifying the main forces contributing to the economic collapse caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and for evaluating the effectiveness of federal economic policies like the Paycheck Protection Program.

JEL Classification: C32, C55, E32, E66

Suggested Citation

Baumeister, Christiane and Leiva-Leon, Danilo and Sims, Eric R., Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions (July 2021). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP16317, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3886790

Christiane Baumeister (Contact Author)

University of Notre Dame - University of Pretoria - NBER - CEPR - Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, ANU ( email )

361 Mendoza College of Business
Notre Dame, IN 46556-5646
United States

Danilo Leiva-Leon

Banco de España ( email )

Alcala 50
Madrid 28014
Spain

Eric R. Sims

University of Michigan at Ann Arbor ( email )

500 S. State Street
Ann Arbor, MI 48109
United States

University of Notre Dame - Department of Economics ( email )

Notre Dame, IN 46556
United States

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