Decomposing Momentum: The Forgotten Component

Abstract

We split up the standard momentum return over months t-12 to t-2 at the highest stock price within this formation period. Of the overall momentum profits in month t, 84% can be attributed to the return prior to this peak price although research has exclusively focused on the post-peak return so far. The return predictability of the forgotten component is consistent with investor underreaction as underlying mechanism. Contrary to standard momentum strategies, the corresponding long-short returns are positively skewed, avoid momentum crashes, show no market state dependence, and yield consistent return premiums in both the US and international stock markets.

Keywords: Momentum, 52-week high, Momentum crashes, Underreaction, Cross-section of stock returns

JEL Classification: G11, G12