Network Self-Exciting Point Processes To Measure Health Impacts of COVID-19

28 Pages Posted: 12 Aug 2021

See all articles by Paolo Giudici

Paolo Giudici

University of Pavia

Paolo Pagnottoni

University of Pavia - Department of Economics and Management

Alessandro Spelta

University of Pavia - Department of Economics and Management

Date Written: July 25, 2021

Abstract

The assessment of the health impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic requires the consideration of mobility networks. To this aim, we propose to augment spatio-temporal point process models with mobility network covariates. We show how the resulting model can be employed to predict contagion patterns and to help important decisions such as the distribution of vaccines. The application of the proposed methodology to 27 European countries shows that human mobility, along with vaccine doses and government policies, are significant predictors of the number of new COVID-19 reported infections and are therefore key variables for decision making.

Note: Funding: This study is funded by the European Union, Horizon 2020, research and innovation program "PERISCOPE: Pan European Response to the ImpactS of COVID-19 and future Pandemics and Epidemics", grant agreement No. 101016233, H2020-SC1-PHE-CORONAVIRUS-2020-2-RTD.

Declaration of Interests: None to declare

Keywords: COVID-19, Epidemic Modelling, Hawkes Process, Interconnectedness, Mobility Networks.

JEL Classification: C45, C53

Suggested Citation

Giudici, Paolo and Pagnottoni, Paolo and Spelta, Alessandro, Network Self-Exciting Point Processes To Measure Health Impacts of COVID-19 (July 25, 2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3892998 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3892998

Paolo Giudici (Contact Author)

University of Pavia ( email )

Via San Felice 7
27100 Pavia, 27100
Italy

Paolo Pagnottoni

University of Pavia - Department of Economics and Management

Via San Felice 7
Pavia, 27100
Italy

Alessandro Spelta

University of Pavia - Department of Economics and Management ( email )

Strada Nuova, 65
Pavia, 27100
Italy

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