Exploring Nonlinearity on the CO2 Emissions, Economic Production and Energy Use Nexus: A Causal Discovery Approach

26 Pages Posted: 26 Jul 2021

See all articles by Peter Martey Addo

Peter Martey Addo

Agence Française de Développement (AFD); Labex ReFi

Christelle Manibialoa

Agence Française de Développement (AFD)

Florent McIsaac

Université Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne - Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne (CES)

Date Written: 2021

Abstract

We examine the interactions between growth in CO 2 emissions, economic production, and energy use at the global and multi-regional levels over the period 1990-2014. Methodologically, we use causal discovery that relies on linear and nonlinear tests of conditional independence to study their relationships. At the global scale, we show that energy use is unambiguously a nonlinear causal factor of economic output, making energy central in the economic and decarbonisation debate. At the multi-regional scale, causal discovery accurately identifies that three regions are driving global dynamics (East Asia and Pacific, Europe and Central Asia, and North America regions). Energy and climate policies in these regions will nonlinearly influence the degree of global CO 2 emission reduction rates and will impact the global economic dynamics. Our results further suggest that policy effectiveness could be gained if a country's climate actions were coordinated with the other geographies most affected by their consequences.

Suggested Citation

Addo, Peter Martey and Addo, Peter Martey and Manibialoa, Christelle and McIsaac, Florent, Exploring Nonlinearity on the CO2 Emissions, Economic Production and Energy Use Nexus: A Causal Discovery Approach (2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3893534 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3893534

Peter Martey Addo (Contact Author)

Agence Française de Développement (AFD) ( email )

5, rue Roland Barthes
Paris Cedex 12, 75598
France

Labex ReFi ( email )

79 avenue de la République
Paris, 75011
France

Christelle Manibialoa

Agence Française de Développement (AFD) ( email )

5, rue Roland Barthes
Paris Cedex 12, 75598
France

Florent McIsaac

Université Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne - Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne (CES) ( email )

106-112 Boulevard de l'hopital
106-112 Boulevard de l'Hôpital
Paris Cedex 13, 75647
France

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
47
Abstract Views
187
PlumX Metrics