Risk and the Discount Rate for Public Investment

M.C. Jense, STUDIES IN THE THEORY OF CAPITAL MARKETS, Praeger Publishers, 1972

35 Pages Posted: 8 Dec 2005  

Martin J. Bailey

Martin J. Bailey (Deceased)

Michael C. Jensen

Social Science Electronic Publishing (SSEP), Inc.; Harvard Business School; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI)

Abstract

This paper enlarges upon some recent work regarding the appropriate discount rate for public projects and, in particular, shows more fully why risk should enter into the calculation. Indeed, we argue that efficient allocation of risk bearing is usually more difficult for government projects than it is for private ones. Therefore, if anything, the allowance for risk should be greater for government projects than it is for other-wise comparable private ones (assuming no distortions from competitive equilibrium). We then outline the implications of recent mean-variance asset pricing models for the project evaluation framework, providing an integration of the treat-ment of risk with Harberger's (1968) solution to the distortion problem. In the context of this theory we also offer specific arguments on the risks of different types mid classes of govern-ment projects.

Keywords: risk, risk bearing, mean-variance asset pricing model, public investment, discount rate, riskless investment, diversification, distortion

Suggested Citation

Bailey, Martin J. and Jensen, Michael C., Risk and the Discount Rate for Public Investment. M.C. Jense, STUDIES IN THE THEORY OF CAPITAL MARKETS, Praeger Publishers, 1972. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=390110 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.390110

Martin J. Bailey

Martin J. Bailey (Deceased)

Michael C. Jensen (Contact Author)

Social Science Electronic Publishing (SSEP), Inc. ( email )

7858 Sanderling Road
Sarasota, FL 34242
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305 675-3166 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://ssrn.com/author=9

Harvard Business School ( email )

Soldiers Field
Negotiations, Organizations & Markets
Boston, MA 02163
United States
617-510-3363 (Phone)
305-675-3166 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://drfd.hbs.edu/fit/public/facultyInfo.do?facInfo=ovr&facId=6484

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

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European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI) ( email )

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Belgium

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