Economic Origins of the Sicilian Mafia: A Simulation Feedback Model

Pavlov, Oleg V.; Sardell, Jason

Economic Origins of the Sicilian Mafia: A Simulation Feedback Model

Pavlov, O. V., & Sardell, J. M. (2021). Economic Origins of the Sicilian Mafia: A Simulation Feedback Model. In R. Y. Cavana, B. C. Dangerfield, O. V. Pavlov, M. J. Radzicki, & I. D. Wheat (Eds.), Feedback Economics: Economic Modeling with System Dynamics (pp. 137-161). New York: Springer.

25 Pages Posted: 30 Aug 2021 Last revised: 18 Apr 2023

See all articles by Oleg V. Pavlov

Oleg V. Pavlov

Worcester Polytechnic Institute (WPI) - Department of Social Science & Policy Studies

Jason Sardell

University of Texas at Austin

Date Written: 2021

Abstract

This chapter develops a feedback economic model that explains the rise of the Sicilian mafia in the 19th century. Grounded in economic theory, the model incorporates causal relationships between the mafia’s activities, predation, law enforcement, and the profitability of local businesses. Using computational experiments with the model, we explore how different factors and feedback effects impact the mafia’s activity levels. The model explains important historical observations such as the emergence of the mafia in wealthier regions and its absence in the poorer districts despite the greater levels of banditry.

Keywords: Organized crime; Mafia; Law enforcement; Weak states; Feedback model; Feedback economics; System dynamics

Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

Pavlov, Oleg V. and Sardell, Jason, Economic Origins of the Sicilian Mafia: A Simulation Feedback Model (2021). Pavlov, O. V., & Sardell, J. M. (2021). Economic Origins of the Sicilian Mafia: A Simulation Feedback Model. In R. Y. Cavana, B. C. Dangerfield, O. V. Pavlov, M. J. Radzicki, & I. D. Wheat (Eds.), Feedback Economics: Economic Modeling with System Dynamics (pp. 137-161). New York: Springer., Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3901504