Prominence over Proximity? The Effects of Terrorist Attacks on Party Preferences for Incumbent versus Populist Radical Right Parties

Abstract

How does a terrorist attack affect party preferences? Based on existing theories, we would either expect incumbent parties to benefit because of a rally-effect, or populist radical right parties to gain due to a radicalization of voters' preferences. These competing theories are tested with a unique data set of 413.175 voters' responses on a Voting Advice Application. We do so using a novel way to leverage exogenous events using big public opinion data. We show that a terrorist attack has a positive effect for the main incumbent party, even when voters' positions on the issues owned by the populist radical right parties become more radicalized. This means that during crises, voters rally around the flag and prefer prominence over proximity.

Keywords: Terrorist attacks, Rally-effect, Populist Radical Right Parties, Immigration, VAA data

JEL Classification: D00