Clean Energy Futures: An Australian Based Foresight Study

30 Pages Posted: 16 Aug 2021

See all articles by Nicholas Gilmore

Nicholas Gilmore

University of New South Wales (UNSW) - Design Next

Ilpo Koskinen

University of New South Wales (UNSW) - Design Next

Domenique van Gennip

University of New South Wales (UNSW) - Design Next

Greta Paget

University of New South Wales (UNSW) - Design Next

Patrick A. Burr

University of New South Wales (UNSW) - School of Mechanical and Manufacturing Engineering

Edward G. Obbard

University of New South Wales (UNSW) - School of Mechanical and Manufacturing Engineering

Rahman Daiyan

University of New South Wales (UNSW) - School of Chemical Engineering

Alistair Sproul

University of New South Wales (UNSW) - School of Photovoltaic and Renewable Energy Engineering

Merlinde Kay

University of New South Wales (UNSW) - School of Photovoltaic and Renewable Energy Engineering

Alison Lennon

University of New South Wales (UNSW) - School of Photovoltaic and Renewable Energy Engineering

Georgios Konstantinou

University of New South Wales (UNSW) - School of Electrical Engineering and Telecommunications

Mark Hemer

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Oceans and Atmosphere

Emi Minghui Gui

Monash Sustainable Development Institute - ClimateWorks Australia

Nicholas Gurieff

University of Newcastle (Australia) - Priority Research Centre for Frontier Energy Technologies & Utilisation

Date Written: 2021

Abstract

Political decarbonisation commitments and outcompeting renewable electricity costs are disrupting energy systems. This foresight study prepares stakeholders for this dynamic, reactive change by examining visions that constitute a probable, plausible and possible component of future energy systems. Visions were extrapolated through an expert review of energy technologies and Australian case studies. 'Probable–Abundant' envisages a high penetration of solar and wind with increased value of balancing services: batteries, pumped hydro and transmission. This vision is exemplified by the South Australian grid, where variable and distributed sources lead generation. 'Plausible–Traded' envisages power and power fuel exports given hydrogen and high-voltage direct-current transmission advances. Australian strategies aim to leverage rich renewable resources to establish clean energy exchanges at national, and perhaps intercontinental, scales. 'Possible–Zero' envisages the application of carbon removal and nuclear technologies in response to the escalating challenge of deep decarbonisation. The Australian critical minerals strategy may signal adaptations of high-emission industries to shifting energy resource values. These visions provide a flexible, accessible framework for diverse stakeholders to discuss potential changes, and consider issues from new perspectives. Appraisal of prefered futures also allows recognition of observed changes as positive or negative and may lead to new planning aspirations.

Suggested Citation

Gilmore, Nicholas and Koskinen, Ilpo and van Gennip, Domenique and Paget, Greta and Burr, Patrick A. and Obbard, Edward G. and Daiyan, Rahman and Sproul, Alistair and Kay, Merlinde and Lennon, Alison and Konstantinou, Georgios and Hemer, Mark and Gui, Emi Minghui and Gurieff, Nicholas, Clean Energy Futures: An Australian Based Foresight Study (2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3906061

Nicholas Gilmore

University of New South Wales (UNSW) - Design Next ( email )

UNSW Sydney
Sydney, 2052
Australia

Ilpo Koskinen (Contact Author)

University of New South Wales (UNSW) - Design Next ( email )

UNSW Sydney
Sydney, 2052
Australia

Domenique Van Gennip

University of New South Wales (UNSW) - Design Next ( email )

UNSW Sydney
Sydney, 2052
Australia

Greta Paget

University of New South Wales (UNSW) - Design Next ( email )

UNSW Sydney
Sydney, 2052
Australia

Patrick A. Burr

University of New South Wales (UNSW) - School of Mechanical and Manufacturing Engineering ( email )

NSW 2052
Australia

Edward G. Obbard

University of New South Wales (UNSW) - School of Mechanical and Manufacturing Engineering ( email )

NSW 2052
Australia

Rahman Daiyan

University of New South Wales (UNSW) - School of Chemical Engineering ( email )

Australia

Alistair Sproul

University of New South Wales (UNSW) - School of Photovoltaic and Renewable Energy Engineering ( email )

NSW 2052
Australia

Merlinde Kay

University of New South Wales (UNSW) - School of Photovoltaic and Renewable Energy Engineering ( email )

NSW 2052
Australia

Alison Lennon

University of New South Wales (UNSW) - School of Photovoltaic and Renewable Energy Engineering ( email )

NSW 2052
Australia

Georgios Konstantinou

University of New South Wales (UNSW) - School of Electrical Engineering and Telecommunications ( email )

Sydney, New South Wales 2052
Australia

HOME PAGE: http://https://research.unsw.edu.au/people/dr-georgios-konstantinou

Mark Hemer

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Oceans and Atmosphere ( email )

Hobart
Australia

Emi Minghui Gui

Monash Sustainable Development Institute - ClimateWorks Australia ( email )

Melbourne
Australia

Nicholas Gurieff

University of Newcastle (Australia) - Priority Research Centre for Frontier Energy Technologies & Utilisation ( email )

New South Wales, 2308
Australia

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