Are Money Line Odds in UFC Matches Calibrated? Evidence From Events in 2019–2020

17 Pages Posted: 4 Sep 2021

Date Written: August 16, 2021

Abstract

Whether money line odds from bookmakers are calibrated to future outcomes and underlying betting markets are efficient are fundamental and related questions. In this paper, I examine Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) events from 2019 to 2020 and evaluate whether given odds for match win, win method, and winning round outcomes are calibrated. My evaluation consists of a) qualitative and quantitative Hosmer-Lemeshow analyses, and b) quantitative likelihood ratio tests derived from logistic and multinomial models of match outcomes. I find that although money line odds for win wagers are calibrated for outcomes, those for win method and winning round are not.

Keywords: Model Calibration, Sports Betting, Bookmaker Odds, Market Efficiency

JEL Classification: C58, G14, Z20

Suggested Citation

Stanhope, Stephen, Are Money Line Odds in UFC Matches Calibrated? Evidence From Events in 2019–2020 (August 16, 2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3906072 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3906072

Stephen Stanhope (Contact Author)

Astellas Pharma ( email )

Northbrook, IL
United States

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