Set-Level Strategic and Psychological Momentum in Best-of-Five Matches in Professional Tennis

Abstract

We provide a theoretical and empirical analysis of the set-level strategic and psychological momentums in best-of-five contests where players have asymmetric abilities. Theoretical predictions match observed Set 1 outcomes, the only set with no set-level psychological momentum, but do not match any other sets. We  find evidence of psychological reversal: in every set following a non-tie net score, the winner of the previous set underperforms as compared to theoretical predictions.

Keywords: tennis, best-of-N tournaments, contests

JEL Classification: Z20, L83, C73