Modeling the Interconnectivity of Non-stationary Polar Ice Sheets

32 Pages Posted: 27 Sep 2021

See all articles by Luke Jackson

Luke Jackson

University of Durham

Katarina Juselius

University of Copenhagen - Department of Economics

Andrew B. Martinez

U.S. Department of the Treasury, Office of Macroeconomic Analysis; George Washington University - Research Program on Forecasting

Felix Pretis

University of Victoria, Department of Economics; University of Oxford - Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School

Date Written: August 26, 2021

Abstract

Understanding changes to the mass of the polar ice sheets is of crucial scientific and socioeconomic importance due to their effect on the wider Earth system and potential to contribute to future sea level rise. On monthly to multi-decadal timescales, there is much uncertainty around the extent to which the non-stationary, non-linear responses of the ice sheets interact through the atmosphere-ocean climate. We test and quantify the nature of non-stationarity and inter-dependence between ice mass balance time series for Greenland, West and East Antarctica using a multi-cointegration vector autoregression model, which has been used to show equivalence between simple climate models and emulations of complex physical processes. We focus on three alternative specifications by comparing I(2) models of cumulative ice mass balance with an I(1) model of the ice mass balance, exploring the model dynamics, and evaluating the out-of-sample forecasts against satellite observations. Our results support the I(2) model with a bipolar relationship between Greenland and West Antarctica and provide some of the first empirical evidence of tipping-points in the recent observed record. Long-term projections indicate that there is considerable risk of Greenland contributing more to sea level rise than under the IPCC’s extreme climate change scenario.

Keywords: Cointegration, dynamic analysis, sea level

JEL Classification: Q54, C32, C51, C52, C53

Suggested Citation

Jackson, Luke and Juselius, Katarina and Martinez, Andrew B. and Pretis, Felix, Modeling the Interconnectivity of Non-stationary Polar Ice Sheets (August 26, 2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3912725 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3912725

Luke Jackson (Contact Author)

University of Durham ( email )

Durham
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://https://www.durham.ac.uk/staff/luke-p-jackson/

Katarina Juselius

University of Copenhagen - Department of Economics ( email )

Øster Farimagsgade 5
Bygning 26
1353 Copenhagen K.
Denmark

Andrew B. Martinez

U.S. Department of the Treasury, Office of Macroeconomic Analysis ( email )

1500 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20220
United States

George Washington University - Research Program on Forecasting ( email )

1922 F Street, NW
Old Main, Suite 208
Washington, DC 20052
United States

Felix Pretis

University of Victoria, Department of Economics ( email )

3800 Finnerty Rd
Victoria, British Columbia V8P 5C2
Canada

University of Oxford - Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School ( email )

Eagle House
Walton Well Road
Oxford, OX2 6ED
United Kingdom

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