Potential Demographic Dividend for India, 2001 to 2061: A Macro-Simulation Projection Using the Spectrum Model

29 Pages Posted: 4 Sep 2021 Last revised: 2 Dec 2021

See all articles by Neha Jain

Neha Jain

Indian Institute of Foreign Trade; Jawaharlal Nehru University

Srinivas Goli

University of Western Australia; Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU)

Date Written: September 2, 2021


This paper projects potential demographic dividend for India for the period from 2001 to 2061 by using simulation modelling software, Spectrum 5.753 which integrates demographic and socio-economic changes. Two key findings, after checking their robustness, from the simulation modelling are: First, the effective demographic windows of opportunity for India is available for the period between 2011 and 2041, giving India roughly 30 years of demographic bonus. It is the period where the maximum of the first demographic dividend can be reaped before the ageing burden starts. Second, favourable demographic changes alone provide a demographic dividend of over 165,000 rupees (almost an additional 43 percentage) in terms of GDP per capita by 2061 when integrated with supporting socio-economic policy environment in terms of investment in human capital, family planning, decent employment opportunities, the rapid pace of urbanization, and agricultural growth.

Keywords: Demographic Dividend, Working-Age Population, Health, Education, Employment

JEL Classification: J10, J11

Suggested Citation

Jain, Neha and Goli, Srinivas and Goli, Srinivas, Potential Demographic Dividend for India, 2001 to 2061: A Macro-Simulation Projection Using the Spectrum Model (September 2, 2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3916176 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3916176

Neha Jain (Contact Author)

Indian Institute of Foreign Trade ( email )

New Delhi
NEW DELHI, 110016

Jawaharlal Nehru University ( email )

Vasant Vihar
Jawaharlal Nehru University
New Delhi, DE Delhi 110067
09953491251 (Phone)
110092 (Fax)

Srinivas Goli

University of Western Australia ( email )

Nedlands, Western Australia 6907
6009 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://https://research-repository.uwa.edu.au/en/persons/srinivas-goli

Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) ( email )

Centre for the Study of Regional Development
School of Social Sciences
New Delhi, Delhi 110 067
07042181232 (Phone)
110067 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://https://www.jnu.ac.in/content/srinivasgoli

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