Climate-Related Disasters and the Death Toll

59 Pages Posted: 8 Sep 2021

See all articles by Valérie Chavez-Demoulin

Valérie Chavez-Demoulin

University of Lausanne - School of Economics and Business Administration (HEC-Lausanne)

Eric Jondeau

University of Lausanne - Faculty of Business and Economics (HEC Lausanne); Swiss Finance Institute; Swiss Finance Institute

Linda Mhalla

University of Lausanne, School of Economics and Business Administration (HEC Lausanne); HEC Montreal - Department of Decision Sciences; University of Geneva, Geneva School of Economics and Management, Research Center for Statistics

Date Written: September 3, 2021

Abstract

With climate change accelerating, the frequency of climate disasters is expected to increase in the decades to come. There is ongoing debate as to how different climatic regions will be affected by such an acceleration. In this paper, we describe a model for predicting the frequency of climate disasters and the severity of the resulting number of deaths. The frequency of disasters is described as a Poisson process driven by aggregate CO2 emissions. The severity of disasters is described using a generalized Pareto distribution driven by the trend in regional real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. We predict the death toll for different types of climate disasters based on the projections made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the population, the regional real GDP per capita, and aggregate CO2 emissions in the "sustainable" and "business-as-usual" baseline scenarios.

Keywords: Climate change, Climate disasters, Death toll, Frequency and severity

Suggested Citation

Chavez-Demoulin, Valérie and Jondeau, Eric and Mhalla, Linda, Climate-Related Disasters and the Death Toll (September 3, 2021). Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper No. 21-63, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3918201 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3918201

Valérie Chavez-Demoulin

University of Lausanne - School of Economics and Business Administration (HEC-Lausanne) ( email )

Unil Dorigny, Batiment Anthropole
Lausanne, 1015
Switzerland

HOME PAGE: http://https://www.hec.unil.ch/people/vchavez&vue=contact&set_language=en&cl=en

Eric Jondeau (Contact Author)

University of Lausanne - Faculty of Business and Economics (HEC Lausanne) ( email )

Extranef 232
Lausanne, 1012
Switzerland
+41 21 692 33 49 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://people.unil.ch/ericjondeau/

Swiss Finance Institute ( email )

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Swiss Finance Institute

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Linda Mhalla

University of Lausanne, School of Economics and Business Administration (HEC Lausanne) ( email )

Lausanne, Vaud
Switzerland

University of Geneva, Geneva School of Economics and Management, Research Center for Statistics ( email )

Geneva
Switzerland
+41 379 82 12 (Phone)

HEC Montreal - Department of Decision Sciences ( email )

3000 Côte-Sainte-Catherine Road
Montreal, QC H2S1L4
Canada

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