Unemployment Claims During COVID-19 and Economic Support Measures in the U.S.

19 Pages Posted: 8 Sep 2021 Last revised: 9 May 2022

See all articles by Theologos Dergiades

Theologos Dergiades

University of Macedonia - Department of International and European Studies

Costas Milas

University of Liverpool

Theodore Panagiotidis

University of Macedonia - Department of Economics

Date Written: September 7, 2021

Abstract

Governments want to know how effective COVID-19 anti-contagion policies and implemented economic stimulus measures have been to plan their short-run interventions. We condition on the state of the pandemic to assess the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and economic stimulus policies on the excess unemployment insurance claims in the United States. We focus on weekly data between February 2020 and January 2021 and motivate our analysis by the theoretical framework of the second-wave SIR-macro type models to build a panel Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) specification. Non-pharmaceutical interventions become effective immediately and impact the labor market negatively. Economic stimulus takes about a month to turn effective and only partially eases the economic welfare losses. Health-related restrictive measures are primarily driven by the state of the pandemic. Economic support policies depend predominantly on the reaction of the labor market rather than the severity of the pandemic itself.

Keywords: Unemployment claims, NPIs, Economic stimulus, Panel VAR.

JEL Classification: C3; C5; J6

Suggested Citation

Dergiades, Theologos and Milas, Costas and Panagiotidis, Theodore, Unemployment Claims During COVID-19 and Economic Support Measures in the U.S. (September 7, 2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3918769 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3918769

Theologos Dergiades

University of Macedonia - Department of International and European Studies ( email )

Egnatia str. 156
Thessaloniki, 54636
Greece

Costas Milas

University of Liverpool ( email )

Chatham Street
Brownlow Hill
Liverpool
United Kingdom

Theodore Panagiotidis (Contact Author)

University of Macedonia - Department of Economics ( email )

Thessaloniki, 54006
Greece

HOME PAGE: http://users.uom.gr/~tpanag/

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