Pro-Trump Partisanship and COVID-19 Mortality: A Model-Based Counterfactual Analysis

33 Pages Posted: 21 Sep 2021 Last revised: 27 Oct 2021

See all articles by Dominik Liebl

Dominik Liebl

University of Bonn; University Bonn - Hausdorff Center For Mathematics

Ulrich Schüwer

Goethe University Frankfurt - Department of Finance; Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE

Date Written: October 26, 2021

Abstract

We show that a higher share of Trump voters (who are less likely to comply with COVID-19 public health guidelines than Democratic voters) in a U.S. county leads to significantly more COVID-19 deaths during times of high regional infection risk. Our model-based counterfactual analysis finds that about 15 percent of the cumulative death rates in pro-Trump counties after the first year of the pandemic can be explained by a pro-Trump partisanship effect. The analysis considers demographic and socioeconomic differences between counties, unobserved heterogeneity on county and interacted week x state level, and non-linear effects due to spatiotemporal differences in infection risks.

Note: Funding: None to declare.

Declaration of Interests: None to declare.

Keywords: COVID-19, political partisanship, pro-Trump counties, health behavior

JEL Classification: I12, I18

Suggested Citation

Liebl, Dominik and Schüwer, Ulrich, Pro-Trump Partisanship and COVID-19 Mortality: A Model-Based Counterfactual Analysis (October 26, 2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3924620 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3924620

Dominik Liebl

University of Bonn ( email )

Bonn
Germany

University Bonn - Hausdorff Center For Mathematics ( email )

Endenicher Allee 62
Bonn, 53115
Germany

Ulrich Schüwer (Contact Author)

Goethe University Frankfurt - Department of Finance ( email )

House of Finance
Theodor-W.-Adorno-Platz 3
Frankfurt, 60323
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.wiwi.uni-frankfurt.de/de/abteilungen/finance/home.html

Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE ( email )

(http://www.safe-frankfurt.de)
Theodor-W.-Adorno-Platz 3
Frankfurt am Main, 60323
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://safe-frankfurt.de/

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