Pro-Trump Partisanship and COVID-19 Mortality: A Model-Based Counterfactual Analysis
33 Pages Posted: 21 Sep 2021 Last revised: 27 Oct 2021
Date Written: October 26, 2021
We show that a higher share of Trump voters (who are less likely to comply with COVID-19 public health guidelines than Democratic voters) in a U.S. county leads to significantly more COVID-19 deaths during times of high regional infection risk. Our model-based counterfactual analysis finds that about 15 percent of the cumulative death rates in pro-Trump counties after the first year of the pandemic can be explained by a pro-Trump partisanship effect. The analysis considers demographic and socioeconomic differences between counties, unobserved heterogeneity on county and interacted week x state level, and non-linear effects due to spatiotemporal differences in infection risks.
Note: Funding: None to declare.
Declaration of Interests: None to declare.
Keywords: COVID-19, political partisanship, pro-Trump counties, health behavior
JEL Classification: I12, I18
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation