V for Vaccines and Variants

63 Pages Posted: 21 Sep 2021

See all articles by Domenico Delli Gatti

Domenico Delli Gatti

Catholic University of Milan

Severin Reissl

RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment; CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change

Enrico Maria Turco

Catholic University of Milan; University of Amsterdam

Date Written: 2021

Abstract

We employ a new version of the ABC macro-epidemiological agent based model presented in Delli Gatti and Reissl (2020) to evaluate the effects of vaccinations and variants on the epidemic and macroeconomic outlook. Vaccination plays the role of a mitigating factor, reducing the frequency and the amplitude of contagion waves, while also significantly improving macroeconomic performance. The emergence of a variant, on the other hand, plays the role of an accelerating factor, increasing the volatility of epidemic curves and worsening the macroeconomic outlook. If a more contagious variant emerges after vaccination becomes available, therefore, the mitigating factor of the latter is at least partially offset by the former. A new and improved vaccine in turn can redress the situation. Vaccinations and variants, therefore, can be conceived of as drivers of an intertwined cycle impacting both epidemiological and macroeconomic developments.

Keywords: agent-based models, epidemic, Covid, vaccination, variant

JEL Classification: E210, E220, E240, E270, I120, I150, I180

Suggested Citation

Delli Gatti, Domenico and Reissl, Severin and Turco, Enrico Maria and Turco, Enrico Maria, V for Vaccines and Variants (2021). CESifo Working Paper No. 9291, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3925323 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3925323

Domenico Delli Gatti (Contact Author)

Catholic University of Milan ( email )

Largo Gemelli 1
Milan, MI Milano 20123
Italy

Severin Reissl

RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment ( email )

Via Bergognone, 34
Milan, 20144
Italy

CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change ( email )

Lecce
Italy

Enrico Maria Turco

Catholic University of Milan ( email )

1 Largo A. Gemelli
Milano (Milan), MI Milano 20123
Italy

University of Amsterdam ( email )

Roetersstraat 11
Amsterdam, 1018 WB
Netherlands

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