Apocalypse Now, Apocalypse When? Economic Growth and Structural Breaks in Argentina (1886-2003)

Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, 2022, 30(1), pp 3-32

45 Pages Posted: 28 Sep 2021 Last revised: 2 Feb 2022

See all articles by Nauro Campos

Nauro Campos

University College London

Menelaos Karanasos

Brunel University London - Economics and Finance

Michail Karoglou

Aston University

Panagiotis Koutroumpis

Queen Mary University London

C. Zopounidis

Technical University of Crete (TUC) - Department of Production Engineering and Management

Apostolos G. Christopoulos

National and Kapodistrian University of Athens - Faculty of Economics

Date Written: September 23, 2021

Abstract

Argentina is the only country in the world that was developed in 1900 and developing in 2000. Although there is widespread consensus on the occurrence and uniqueness of this decline, an intense debate remains on its timing and underlying causes. This paper provides a first systematic investigation of the timing of the Argentine debacle. It uses an array of econometric tests for structural breaks and a range of GDP growth series covering 1886-2003. The main conclusion is the dating of two key structural breaks (in 1918 and 1948), which we argue support explanations for the debacle that highlight the slowdown of domestic financial development and trade protectionism (after 1918) and of institutional development (after 1948).

Keywords: economic growth, structural breaks, Argentina

JEL Classification: C14, O40, E23, D72

Suggested Citation

Campos, Nauro and Karanasos, Menelaos and Karoglou, Michail and Koutroumpis, Panagiotis and Zopounidis, Constantin and Christopoulos, Apostolos G., Apocalypse Now, Apocalypse When? Economic Growth and Structural Breaks in Argentina (1886-2003) (September 23, 2021). Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, 2022, 30(1), pp 3-32, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3929367

Nauro Campos

University College London ( email )

Gower Street
London, WC1E 6BT
United Kingdom

Menelaos Karanasos

Brunel University London - Economics and Finance ( email )

Uxbridge UB8 3PH
United Kingdom

Michail Karoglou

Aston University ( email )

Aston Triangle
Birmingham, B4 7ET
United Kingdom

Panagiotis Koutroumpis (Contact Author)

Queen Mary University London ( email )

Office GC 3.32
Graduate Centre, Mile End Campus
London, E14NS
United Kingdom
02078825872 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.pkoutroumpis.com

Constantin Zopounidis

Technical University of Crete (TUC) - Department of Production Engineering and Management ( email )

University Campus
Chania
Crete, 73100
Greece
+30 28210 37236 (Phone)
+30 28210 69410, 37236 (Fax)

Apostolos G. Christopoulos

National and Kapodistrian University of Athens - Faculty of Economics ( email )

5 Stadiou Str
Athens, 15262
Greece

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